Week 14: The best college football bets, picks and predictions from Matt Youmans

Happy Thanksgiving week to everyone except Dan Hurley, who helped UConn to last place at the Maui Invitational and handled it like a sore loser. It’s hard to go to Hawaii and be unhappy there, but Hurley did it. But this is college basketball. I returned from Maui and this is a college football column. It’s rivalry week with all sorts of playoff implications on the line, and here are my top seven Week 14 college football bets for Saturday:

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Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

The Volunteers have a lot more at stake, as they could host a first-round playoff game with a win or miss the playoffs with a loss. Tennessee will rely heavily on Dylan Sampson, one of the best running backs in the country with 22 touchdowns. The Commodores, 6-5 and going bowling, will be motivated to play spoilsport. Veteran quarterback Diego Pavia is a scrap dog who sets the tone for Vanderbilt, which is 7-1 ATS as a dog and has only one loss by more than seven points this season. Tennessee is likely to come away with a win in a close game.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Vanderbilt +11

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

A year ago, David Braun pulled off a miracle by coaching the Purple Cats to a Las Vegas Bowl victory. Braun even excelled again this season, coaching Northwestern to a 4-7 record. The Wildcats have won seven of the last 10 games against the Fighting Illini, including a 45-43 shootout in Champaign last year. There will be no shootout on a cold day at Wrigley Field. Illinois (8-3) has found ways to win close games, with overtime victories over Nebraska and Purdue, and it’s likely to be low-scoring and ugly.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Northwestern +7.5

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Kenny Dillingham went 3-9 in his first season as Arizona State coach and has turned the record to 9-2 this season. Freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt leads the offense, but senior running back Cam Skattebo provides the horsepower. Skattebo has rushed for 147 yards or more in five games. There was a combination of chaos and pandemonium in Tempe last week as fans stormed the field to celebrate the Sun Devils’ win over BYU. This is a situational game against the away favorite in a rivalry. Arizona State has a lot to lose, and Arizona can play easy. The Wildcats are capable offensively, led by quarterback Noah Fifita and wideout Tetairoa McMillan, and see a chance to salvage something from a lost season.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Arizona +9

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Since an embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, the Fighting Irish are 9-0 with eight double-digit wins and an average margin of victory of 32.5 points. The Notre Dame defense ranks second nationally in scoring (11.6 ppg). Riley Leonard has improved as a passer and Riley and running back Jeremiyah Love have combined for 27 rushing touchdowns. Nevertheless, this will be a step forward in the competition and will be the Irish’s first real away game since September 14th. USC is 6-5 with each of the losses by seven points or less. Trojans coach Lincoln Riley has had a down year, but the truth is his team has been in the fourth quarter of every game.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: USC +7.5

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET

My affinity for pet dogs in rivalry games must be obvious, so here’s another one. Texas A&M coach Mike Elko is ready to throw everything he has at the Longhorns, who are clearly more talented but will falter at Kyle Field. Elko’s offense has been better in recent weeks behind freshman quarterback Marcel Reed and running back Amari Daniels. The Longhorns have played just two SEC road games, winning by three at Vanderbilt and 10 at Arkansas, making coach Steve Sarkisian the road favorite in league play, going 1-4 ATS in his last five games. Texas faces its toughest test, so scoring more than just a field goal is asking a lot. The winner will face Georgia in the SEC title game, and I expect the Longhorns to win that game by three wins.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Texas A&M +5.5

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET

In eight games with Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback, UNLV has averaged 38 points, and two of those games were played in the rain at Hawaii and San Jose State. While the Rebels can score and strike quickly, their defense has fallen into the air. Dual-threat quarterback Brendon Lewis missed some time with a head injury, but he’s back and can help the Wolf Pack score enough points to top the standings.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Nevada-UNLV over 55

Saturday, 11 p.m., ET

I usually play home in Honolulu, but here I’m leaning toward the Lobos, who are 5-6 years old and have bowl eligibility. New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier totaled 3,657 yards, including 1,065 on the ground, and 28 total touchdowns. Dampier is a playmaker, and Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager will give it his all in his career finale. The Lobos have been in some shootouts with scores of 50-40, 52-37, 50-45, 49-45 and 38-35, so bet on the final game of the night to be wild.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: New Mexico-Hawaii over 61.5

Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 34-30-2

For more college football Week 14 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 14 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.