Will Wisconsin extend its bowl streak? More than Paul Bunyan’s ax is at stake against Minnesota

MADISON, Wis. – Wisconsin defensive coordinator Mike Tressel spoke with safety Hunter Wohler during the week of the Alabama game in September, trying to find out how one of his star players felt about the excitement surrounding the match. This was a game that Wohler, a graduate from Muskego, Wisconsin, publicly admitted he had had on his radar since high school because of the opportunity to play against a traditional college football powerhouse.

Tressel asked him how such a big game compared to cross-border rival Minnesota.

“He was like, ‘Oh, it’s not like the Minnesota game.’ “There is no other game that compares to the Minnesota game,” Tressel said. “So I hope we have enough veterans and people who have been through this that understand how big this is.”

When Wisconsin (5-6, 3-5 Big Ten) plays Minnesota (6-5, 4-4) in the teams’ regular-season finale at Camp Randall Stadium on Friday at 11 a.m. CT, it won’t be about proving that Nation where Badgers football is back. That ship has sailed, at least for this season. But make no mistake: This battle for Paul Bunyan’s ax is significant for Wisconsin’s program in many ways.

Start with the fact that Wisconsin needs a win to qualify for a bowl game for the 23rd straight season. Additionally, a loss would mean the Badgers would have a completely empty trophy case in their locker room this season after previous losses to Iowa and Nebraska. And of course, there’s also the bragging rights that come with keeping the ax in the Football Bowl Subdivision’s most-played rivalry.

“I don’t even need to say how much is at stake next Friday,” Badgers outside linebacker Aaron Witt said. “There are guys in the locker room that I want to play with again. I would do anything to play with them again. We have to win this game.

“And on top of that, anyone who has ever come to Wisconsin, you don’t want to let these guys down. To anyone who has walked through this locker room before, to anyone who played at Camp Randall, the Ax means something and these trophy games mean something. So you have to find ways to win these games.”

Here are three questions Wisconsin can answer on Friday, plus a prediction.

Will the Badgers defense show up?

It’s been a rollercoaster season for Wisconsin’s defense, with some notable highs (USC in the first half, Penn State, Oregon) and harrowing lows (USC in the second half, Iowa, Nebraska). Wisconsin is coming off a game in which its defense let the team down, giving up 44 points and 473 total yards to Nebraska. Minnesota isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, but the Gophers have some playmakers who can cause problems for the Badgers.

Tressel suggested that Minnesota “can’t pass the ball even once,” although that gives too much credit to the Gophers’ running game, which ranks 121st in the FBS. Running back Darius Taylor leads the team with 730 yards rushing and nine touchdowns. Minnesota has been a much more efficient passing team this season behind New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer, who is averaging seven more attempts per game than Athan Kaliakmanis did last year. Brosmer ranks in the top half of the Big Ten in passing yards (2,426) and touchdown passes (15) and has thrown five interceptions.

Still, Tressel said he believes it will come down to stopping the run, and the Badgers rank 91st nationally in run defense (163.4 yards per game), a stat better than just Purdue among those Big Ten teams. Wisconsin hasn’t had a run defense worse than this since 2005. That’s a huge drop considering Wisconsin held opponents under 100 yards rushing per game in eight of nine seasons before Tressel’s arrival. The Badgers are also dealing with recent injuries to two of the team’s leaders: Wohler and linebacker Jake Chaney.

“We need to respond better to adversity,” Tressel said. “And when we’re the ones getting hit, it’s more about fighting back than survival mode. And I think we’ll fight back this week. It’s a big deal.”

How does Wisconsin build its huddle offense?

Wisconsin’s offense looked about as crisp as it had all season against Nebraska, which was quite a feat considering head coach Luke Fickell had fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo six days earlier. The Badgers huddled together between every play, not only for the first time in the Fickell era but also the first time ever for many players, including quarterback Braedyn Locke. This approach resulted in less confusion on the offensive line and an offense that required more shifts and movements.

Wisconsin averaged 7.4 yards per game against Nebraska, its second-best mark this season behind 8.1 yards against Purdue. Locke looked as relaxed as he has all season, making quick passes and getting the ball out of his hands early. He threw three touchdown passes, with Wisconsin’s outside receivers at their best. Bryson Green, who injured his left knee early in the season, had a 100 percent performance and caught two touchdown passes; Vinny Anthony added another reception.

Is it realistic to think that Locke can string two games together like this? Minnesota’s defense won’t make it easy. The Gophers rank 12th nationally in total defense and 15th in scoring defense. Wisconsin has already played four opponents that rank in the top 15 nationally in scoring defense: Penn State, Oregon, Alabama and Iowa. All of those games resulted in losses for Wisconsin, with Locke completing 49.6 percent of his passes for three touchdowns and four interceptions.

Locke will need help from tailbacks Tawee Walker and Darrion Dupree in the running game. Dupree, a freshman, was a bright spot in the team’s first four-game loss in 16 years. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry against Iowa and 7.9 yards per carry against Nebraska.

Is this the end of the bowl streak?

Wisconsin’s 22 consecutive bowl games represent the third-longest active streak in the FBS. No, simply reaching a bowl game – possibly the GameAbove Sports Bowl in Detroit – shouldn’t be the bar for success, considering where Wisconsin is in the last decades. But that’s where the Badgers find themselves in their second year under Fickell.

This will not be a year where Wisconsin or any other team can return to a bowl game as a 5-7 team based on their academic progress. As the final weekend begins, 77 FBS teams with at least six wins have already qualified for the postseason. There are 82 postseason spots available, including 35 bowl games outside of the College Football Playoff. Sixteen teams, including Wisconsin, have five wins heading into the weekend.

Either way, there will be at least 79 bowl-eligible teams by the end of the weekend as there are two matchups between five-win teams: Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan and Virginia at Virginia Tech. That leaves three bowl spots for 12 other teams, meaning there’s a good chance there are more bowl-eligible teams than there are bowl spots. As a Big Ten team with six wins, Wisconsin doesn’t have to worry about missing a bowl. But the Badgers have to worry about whether they can actually get there.

forecast

I’ll be honest: I don’t know how anyone can trust this Wisconsin team in a big moment. I have no doubt that the Badgers want to win. They’ve said all the right things all season. But Wisconsin has lost every game against a decent FBS team other than Rutgers.

This was a disappointing season in many ways, with losses to Iowa and Nebraska being the biggest testament to the state of the program. Yes, the Badgers held tough against Penn State and Oregon. But there was just a lack of consistency. Wisconsin hasn’t lost five games in a row since the Badgers lost six in a row during Barry Alvarez’s second season in 1991. Wisconsin definitely has a chance to do well here. But after seeing what happened against Nebraska, my confidence in this is wavering.

Minnesota 24, Wisconsin 21

(Photo: John Fisher/Getty Images)