“Wicked” and “Moana 2” will deliver one of the biggest Thanksgiving box office celebrations of all time

There has never been a Broadway adaptation that received as much initial praise or effusive praise as Universal’s “Wicked” this weekend. But despite the $114 million grossed at 3,888 domestic theaters ahead of a big Thanksgiving weekend, no musical has faced as stiff competition as the film that opens “Wicked” in theaters starting this Wednesday: Disney’s “Moana 2.”

With eight years of familial goodwill built through endless reruns on Disney+, the sequel to Frozen II is expected to break 2019’s Thanksgiving record with $125 million in its second weekend. Worldwide, “Moana 2” is expected to have a total opening of $225 million, with a chance of getting closer to the $295 million global opening of “Inside Out 2” last summer.

Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” which had a comparatively modest but still solid $55.5 million theatrical release, will be particularly popular with male moviegoers because of its R-rated sword fights and ancient Roman spectacle in theaters. But “Moana 2,” with its family-friendly musical numbers, will likely not only attract parents and children but also turn off some of the 18- to 35-year-old female moviegoers that “Wicked” continues to bring to the stage not only this winter. but to generate interest for “Wicked – Part II” next year.

Boxoffice Pro editorial director Daniel Loria expects “Moana 2” to dominate the charts this weekend, possibly at the expense of “Wicked.” Even if that’s the case, he believes Universal has built the hype “Wicked” needs to be a long-term success – something he believes will be a bigger trend this winter.

“I don’t think any of the films this winter are designed to be pivotal in the opening weekend or even after two weekends, and that’s what you want over the holidays,” Loria said. “Theaters and studios are looking for films with a lot of playability. The fact that “Wicked” already has sing-along screenings this Christmas shows how Universal is playing the long game.”

And the long game looks good. After a volatile year filled with strike-related release droughts between January and May, the joint production of “Moana 2,” “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” promises to deliver one of the biggest Thanksgiving weekends in box office history, a challenge for the highest box office All-time five-day total gross for Thanksgiving weekend set at $314 million in 2018.

And even if there aren’t any year-end hits on the level of “Avatar” or “Star Wars” in December, the sheer volume of films is expected to help the market jump into a 2025 that sees more consistent production from Studios is expected, resulting in less production. Theaters are likely to struggle with weeks of declines in ticket sales. Exhibitors tell TheWrap they expect total domestic sales to be between $9.5 billion and $10 billion in 2025, which would be an improvement over the 2023 total of $8.9 billion but still among the 11th .3 billion in 2019 before adjusting for inflation.

“It’s clear once again that when healthy competition meets world-class experiences, the market thrives and consumers win,” Michael O’Leary, president of the National Association of Theater Owners, said in a statement Sunday. “This is a huge catalyst for strong box office performance in December and into the new year.”

The “Moana” tsunami

Eight years ago, “Moana” earned $82 million upon release over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, grossing $248.7 million domestically and $643.3 million worldwide. It was a respectable result and another success for Disney, but fell far short of the $1 billion worldwide total achieved by another of the studio’s animated films, “Zootopia,” in early 2016.

But after the launch of Disney+ in 2019 and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic a year later, “Moana” continued to grow in popularity. With an incredible 80 billion hours watched, the film is the most-watched title on Disney+ since its release – that’s equivalent to 748 million viewings of the film. Nielsen also ranks it as one of the top five most-watched films across all streaming platforms over the past five years.

So it’s no wonder that Disney CEO Bob Iger announced last February during the company’s quarterly earnings call that a “Moana” streaming series previously announced in 2020 would be adapted into a theatrical sequel. The announcement came as Disney struggled with film releases such as “The Marvels,” which became Marvel Studios’ first production to fail to gross $100 million in North America.

Now “Moana 2” is very popular, alongside Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” and Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” as the third Disney box-office success in 2024 with box office receipts of more than a billion US dollars.

It’s part of a radical recovery for Disney after a wildly inconsistent 2023, which included the Thanksgiving flop “Wish,” which grossed just $255 million worldwide. This film, intended to celebrate Disney’s 100th anniversary, was preceded by an even worse bomb in “Strange World” on Thanksgiving 2022, which grossed a paltry $73.6 million worldwide.

Iger and Disney’s decision to focus more on sequels – sequels to “Zootopia”, “The Incredibles”, “Toy Story” and “Frozen” are on the horizon – is paying off: the company’s shares rose 27, 8%. from a year ago. The decisive factor for the latest increase was the fourth quarter results, in which Disney+ was one of the first streaming services to achieve an annual profit.

No rest for the “bad guys”

“Moana 2” is poised for one of the biggest theatrical releases of all time, thanks largely to nostalgic Zoomers and Maui-loving kids. Who can “Wicked” turn to to keep its own exciting beginning going?

Families made up a small portion of the audience for Wicked’s opening weekend, while moviegoers under 18 made up just 13% of the audience share. But that may not tell the whole story. Insiders at Universal say “Wicked” has been over-indexed in Salt Lake City and Nashville, two cities where theaters are particularly reliant on families for revenue.

With Thanksgiving just around the corner, there’s a strong chance that a portion of “Wicked’s” core audience – those who were already sold on the film before its release, rather than garnering interest through word of mouth post-release – will hold off on seeing it Film until the holiday weekend and then have time to go to the cinema, possibly with their families.

The trend could also extend to “Gladiator II,” which saw a fairly even split between moviegoers over and under 35 this weekend, thanks to strong turnout from moviegoers who were too young to see the first “Gladiator.” Seen in theaters almost a year ago a quarter of a century ago. However, the demographic could worsen as the weekends progress, as viewers aged 45 and over who don’t immediately go to the cinema come to see the Ridley Scott legacy sequel.

Even though next weekend will see the lion’s share of family attendance for “Moana 2,” Universal is banking on the excitement of such a large number of moviegoers during its opening weekend, piquing the interest of families and general audiences in a way not seen in previous Broadway adaptations like “In the Heights” and “The Color Purple” failed. Many Broadway films fail to generate interest outside of pre-existing musical fans who largely see the film on opening weekend, but “Wicked” should overcome that with its imaginative cinematic appeal – and on the heels of a truly huge merch and marketing blitz.

“‘Moana 2’ is going to be huge, but I think we’ll see continued participation from 18- to 35-year-old women in ‘Wicked,’ along with some support for couples over Thanksgiving weekend,” Loria said.

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