Top tips from the CFB betting splits for Friday November 29th

Happy Black Friday! Today we have an extensive college football slate with 14 games to choose from. Let’s explore where smart money is headed using our VSiN CFB betting splits. These are updated every 10 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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Navy (7-3) has lost three of its last four games and was just defeated by Tulane 35-0 and failed to cover as a 7.5-point home dog. On the other hand, East Carolina (7-4) is on a four-game winning streak and just defeated North Texas 40-28, winning on the road by 2.5 points. This line opened in about the blink of an eye, with some stores even opening Navy, which was listed as a short 1-point street favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to accept or give up the points. However, despite this even ticket number, we saw the line switch at home to East Carolina -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all when the bets are even, as the oddsmakers theoretically operate in a balanced manner and have no reason to adjust the price. So based on the line movement we know that the pro money has sided with the home team. East Carolina receives just 52% of the spread bets but a whopping 80% of the spread dollars on DraftKings, a sharp “low stakes, higher dollar” betting split. At Circa Sports, East Carolina receives 71% of the spread bets but 95% of the spread dollars, another clever discrepancy. Those who want to pursue the sharp move but are also wary of putting up points in a potentially close game could instead opt to play East Carolina on the moneyline (-135). East Carolina receives 47% of the moneyline bets but 62% of the moneyline dollars on DraftKings, further evidence that smart money is betting on ECU to win the game outright.

Minnesota (6-5) has suffered two straight losses but held its own against Penn State, losing 26-25 but covering as a 12-point home dog. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (5-6) has lost four in a row and was just steamrolled by Nebraska 44-25 without covering as 1.5-point road dogs. This line started with Wisconsin listed as a 2-point home favorite. The crowd is excited to play at home against Wisconsin, which is fighting for bowl eligibility. But even though 62% of the spread bets on DraftKings are on Wisconsin, we’ve seen that line change to Minnesota -1 on the road. This signals a significant shift in the dog-to-favorite line in favor of Minnesota, as the line has moved toward the Golden Gophers despite being the unpopular game. At Circa Sports, Minnesota receives 41% of the spread bets but 85% of the spread dollars, further evidence that the bigger, sharper pro bets are supporting the road team. The Golden Gophers have the better offense (26.5 PPG vs. 24 PPG) and the stingier defense (18.5 PPG vs. 23 PPG). The Sharps also expect a lower scoring game as the total score was reduced from 44 to 40.5. The under receives just 25% of the bets but 52% of the dollars on DraftKings, a sharply contrarian “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split. Weather could play a role here, as the forecast calls for low 20s with winds of 15 mph, making it a “windy sub” system. When winds blow 10 miles per hour or more, low pressure has been about 55% over the past decade.

Stanford (3-8) has lost seven of its last eight games and came up just short against California 24-21, but managed to come back as a 15-point road winner. Likewise, San Jose State (6-5) has lost three of its last four games and just fell to UNLV 27-16, failing to catch up as a 7.5-point home dog. This line started with San Jose State listed as low as a pick’em. Sharps and public bettors both sided with the home team, putting San Jose State ahead by -2.5. San Jose State receives 67% of the spread bets and 74% of the spread dollars on DraftKings. At Circa, San Jose State receives 80% of the spread bets and 94% of the spread dollars. In both cases, the Spartans receive “low stakes, higher dollars” support from Pro and Joe. If you want to reduce risk on a key number, you could play San Jose State on the moneyline at -135 instead. On DraftKings, San Jose State receives 68% of the moneyline bets but 83% of the moneyline dollars. Stanford is just 1-4 on the road this season. San Jose State is 4-2 at home. The Spartans have the superior offense (26.9 PPG vs. 22.1 PPG) and the better defense (26 PPG vs. 33.6 PPG).