The Search for Continuity – The Fourth Period

Recent losses to Vancouver, Calgary and Colorado have shown a shift in five-on-five play, with high threat chances decreasing compared to the season average of 8.5 per game. The highlight of the stagnant 5×5 offense (mandatory for victory given the poor power play) came in the final two periods against the Avalanche. The box score tells you that the Avalanche’s top line dominated the game over the last 40 minutes, but when you watch the Kings struggle to create anything offensively against a one-line team that is missing five forwards and Not much happened in the first half After the loss to Calgary, there are signs that a change in strategy should be urgently considered.

A refreshing part of Hiller’s tenure is his willingness to embrace change. When it comes to attacking combinations, he has far less patience than his predecessor Todd McLellan. While highlighting the line combination mixer is a tool all 32 NHL coaches use, Hiller’s willingness to think outside the box (fourth linemen playing with Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, the use of a fourth forward at 5×5 when behind) maintains fans, media and Opponents I’m guessing what the Kings’ front wall will look like from game to game.

But with unpredictability comes a cost, particularly continuity. Los Angeles is tied for the league lead with 28 goals in the third half, more than double its total in the first half (13). Could the constant rotation of line combinations cause the offense to be stifled at the start of games? While moving the lines allows strikers to play with more teammates, this is mostly done out of necessity, usually when there are injuries to key players. That wasn’t the case with the Kings; Tanner Jeannot has missed three games due to suspension, Alex Turcotte has missed five, but neither was expected to lead the offense.

Winning teams typically generate offense in one of two ways – with a dominant top line (Colorado, Edmonton, which Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl man) or with depth along all four lines (Florida, Vegas and Dallas). As good as Kopitar and Kempe are, they are not dominant offensive players who take over a game like the Oilers pair (OK, no one else does it as well as them) or Tampa’s Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.

After the third straight playoff loss to the Oilers, a change occurred. Four strikers (PL Dubois, Blake Lizotte, Car Grundstrom and Viktor Arvidsson) with varying degrees of impact have disappeared since the end of last season. Considering the change in defensive system and the absence of Doughty, it makes sense that the early season is a time to process those changes. But as the season reaches the quarter mark, it’s important to improve line combinations. The constant turnover hasn’t affected some, but both Quinton Byfield and Philip Danault continue to struggle in the scoring department. Hiller should concentrate on consolidating the attacking combinations.

While the team identity is still rooted in defense, the identity of the forward combinations is missing. With Trevor Moore moving up to play with Kopitar and Kempe, the back nine will be looking for chemistry and consistency. Akil Thomas moved into a shuffled line with Kevin Fiala and Danault, Laferriere and Foegele joined Byfield’s line, while the fourth line was a revolving door with the addition of rookie Samuel Helenius, recalled from the Ontario Reign. The Kopitar line now has two shooters (Moore increasingly resembles last season’s 31-goal scorer), the middle six forwards (currently defined on the Danault and Byfield lines) do not have any distinctive characteristics, which is not unusual.

The fourth line has potential with the arrival of Helenius, whose partnership with big winger Andre Lee was more for next season, but in the limited time the second-generation NHLer has played, he doesn’t seem out of place to be. If the pair continues, team father Trevor Lewis will be seen as a stabilizing force. This trio won’t scare opposing defenses, but that’s not the goal. Given the size of Helenius and Lee, the trio has the potential to create dynamic change, especially early in games when the Kings struggle to get off to strong starts. I’m not ready to say the potential is at the level of the Islanders’ fourth line in their recruiting window (Casey Cizikas, Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck) or the Vegas fourth line that decided the 2023 Cup Finals as Keegan Kolesar Matthew Tkachuk Nailed Game 1, but for a team that lacks size and physicality, dealing with rookie mistakes related to 10 minutes of ice time per game may be worth the risk to explain the game.

Darcy Kuemper’s injury in Colorado will be serious if it is a recurrence of the groin injury that sidelined him for five games in October. Although there are constant reminders on social media that Kuemper is the only returnee from the Gabe Vilardi/Alex Iafallo/Rasmus Kupari/2nd round pick trade, he has, as expected, a .903 save percentage in ten appearances in one league with a .901 average. He was strong on high-danger chances (0.857 save percentage in the 90th percentile according to NHL Edge stats) but weaker on lower chances (median 0.867 save percentage in the bottom 50th percentile). David Rittich won five games, but with worse statistics than Kuemper. So if Kuemper’s absence matters, Rittich needs to raise his level.

And finally: Even if parades are fun, the constant walking to the penalty area needs to stop. They have the third-highest average of penalty minutes per game (11.3) and only four teams have conceded more power play goals than Los Angeles. Although there were improvements compared to the last 10 games (31 of 36 players killed – 86.1% success rate), the disruption of the unnecessary minors (including four substitutes on the bench) is affecting the flow of the offense.

AN IMPORTANT INTERDAY PLUS

The lack of a dominant team in the Pacific Division has allowed the 9-6-3 Kings to remain at the top of the division. Vancouver and Vegas are the exact opposite of each other (the Canucks are 6-1-0 on the road, the Golden Knights’ eight-game winning streak was broken by Carolina), Edmonton is stuck in second gear and while the rest of the division is improving, Seattle, Anaheim, San Jose and Calgary pose no threat of finishing in the top three in the Pacific for a contender for a West wild card spot.

Los Angeles’ biggest advantage is that it is on the back end of a road-heavy start-of-season schedule. No NHL team has played two-thirds of its schedule on the road, and despite the disappointing results on the completed short trip, playing .500 road hockey (5-5-2) puts them in a position to benefit from a schedule where This is not the case as they leave California for the next three weeks.

Seven of their next nine games are at home and the two away games are in San Jose and Anaheim. While the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars are among the opponents on this stretch, there is an opportunity to pick up points and keep them in the Pacific. In another turnaround since the McLellan era, the Kings have become a strong home team under Hiller (4-1-1 this season, 18-4-2 in the regular season since he was named head coach).

The caveat to predicting how they will do is the results they have had against “weaker” teams. They dropped points in San Jose and at home against Chicago and didn’t look impressive in wins against the Ducks and Sharks, but an ugly two points is better than a pretty zero.

When the Kings pack their bags for another seven-game road trip in December (which, after the final pre-Christmas game in Washington, means 21 away games in 34 contests) and are still waiting for Doughty to return, we’ll know a lot more about the team.