The race between Kitchens and Branning Supreme Court is too close to call

• The dead heat on the Supreme Court between Justice Jim Kitchens and challenger Jenifer Branning will come down to Holmes County and a possible fight over absentee ballots. This is a developing story. Check back for more updates.

As night turned to morning, the race between the incumbent Supreme Court justice and her challenger, state Sen. Jenifer Branning, was too close – with one missing county and a number of mail-in ballots cast in the shadow of Thanksgiving, they were likely to be decide on the result.

When the Associated Press stopped publishing numbers Tuesday night, Branning led Kitchens by just 518 votes — 58,798 to 58,280.

After the AP closed, Rankin County — the second largest in the county after Hinds — reported its absentee ballots. Branning received 2,445 of 3,009 postal votes there, a net increase of 1,881 votes. Shortly after Rankin’s absentee numbers were counted, an analyst from Decision Desk HQ contacted the Magnolia Tribune with information that Branning had received an additional 600+ votes in Lauderdale and Neshoba County, exceeding the numbers reported by the AP.

At the time of publication, the Magnolia Tribune tally had Branning ahead by just over 3,000 votes.

However, there are still two significant chunks of votes that are expected to narrow the gap. First, sources tell Magnolia Tribune that about 1,700 mail-in ballots remain to be counted in Hinds County. If Kitchens wins those absentees by the same margin as the in-person vote in Hinds County, he will receive about 1,300 votes.

Second, Holmes County has not reported numbers while all other counties in the county are more than 90 percent counted. Earlier this month, Kitchens beat Branning in Holmes by about 500 votes, albeit alongside three other opponents in the race who received significant support. It’s entirely possible that he could increase his margin even with lower voter turnout.

Combined, the Hinds County absence and the Holmes County vote will narrow Branning’s lead, but alone probably won’t be enough to surpass Kitchens. What is still uncertain at this point is what other areas of votes and absences still need to be counted and whether they can close the gap overall.

Presumably some of these bags will benefit Kitchens, while others will benefit Brannings. The race could very easily become a battle — and perhaps even a legal one — over absentee counts.

An interesting dynamic worth noting is the low runoff voter turnout. Earlier this month, the fight between Kitchens and Branning received over 316,000 votes in a vote that spanned a presidential race and congressional races. At the time of publication, voter turnout in the runoff election was approximately 37 percent of the total turnout from three weeks ago.

However, despite the low turnout, Hinds County fared better, reaching about 45 percent of its early November turnout. Hinds’ better performance than others is probably the main reason the race was not called for Branning.

One final thought: Mississippi may be “deep red,” but its Central District is bright purple. Yes, judicial elections are technically nonpartisan, but that didn’t stop partisans from rallying behind their chosen Supreme Court nominee. Republicans largely sided with Branning, while familiar Democratic faces sided with Kitchens. Similar to last year’s battle for public service commissioner, in which Republican incumbent Brent Bailey lost to Democratic challenger De’Keither Stamps, the Supreme Court race underscores that the district is a political slugfest with 50 :50 opponents.