The Lakers’ path to promotion in the NBA Cup is extremely narrow

The Los Angeles Lakers will need a little luck to prevail if they want to return to the Emirates NBA Cup championship game this year.

Last season, LA made a charming run to the title game of the NBA’s in-season tournament, defeating the Indiana Pacers 123-109. All-NBA Second Team Los Angeles center Anthony Davis delivered a colossal two-way game, scoring 41 points and 20 rebounds on the night while also throwing four blocks. However, All-NBA Third Team Lakers combo forward LeBron James became the NBA’s first in-season tournament MVP thanks to his consistent play.

Los Angeles is scheduled to face the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday evening in the fourth and final group game of the 2024 season. LA is currently 2-1 in West Group B, tied with the Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs for the record. However, the Suns and Spurs sit top of their group thanks to a massive lead in overall points difference. According to Mike Trudell of Lakers.com, Phoenix has a +19 point advantage while San Antonio has a +14 point advantage. However, the Lakers have a point differential of -16 thanks to an embarrassing loss to Phoenix on Tuesday. The Thunder, meanwhile, are 1-1 after playing just two NBA Cup games. The tanktastic Utah Jazz have already been eliminated thanks to a 0-3 start to their group games.

Los Angeles needs to beat the Thunder on Friday, but it probably also needs the 10-9 Spurs to beat the 10-8 Suns on Tuesday. Trudell warns that the Lakers’ wild card chances are slim given their slim point differential. The two teams haven’t played each other this year, but San Antonio edged Phoenix 3-1 in 2023-24, during All-Defensive First Team center Victor Wembanyama’s rookie season. The Spurs at the time did not have veteran starters Chris Paul or Harrison Barnes (who arrived this summer) or exciting young rookie Stephon Castle. At that time, Phoenix had not yet hired current point guard Tyus Jones, and the Suns were coached by Frank Vogel, who has since been replaced by Mike Budenholzer. That means it remains to be seen how the game will turn out.

All the Lakers can do now is win Friday night’s game. And they don’t even like doing that.

According to Joe Dellera of sports betting aggregator The Action Network, the higher-seeded Thunder are slight 1.5-point favorites to beat LA at their home, Crypto.com Arena. At 14-4, Oklahoma City is No. 1 in the West, but is only 3.0 games ahead of the No. 5 seed Lakers (11-7).

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