The cost of Thanksgiving dinner is down again | Market Intel

Americans stocking up for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner will see a drop in their grocery bills for the second year in a row. The 39^Th The American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) annual Thanksgiving dinner survey shows the classic feast for 10 costs $58.08, down 5% from last year. However, that is still 19% more than five years ago. While consumers are getting much-needed relief after years of increased retail prices, these grocery bills also reflect some tough conversations around the dinner table for farm and ranch families.

The Thanksgiving Dinner Survey

For one week each year, volunteer shoppers from all 50 states and Puerto Rico visit their local grocery store (or the local store’s website) to learn the prices of items used in a classic Thanksgiving feast. Since 1986, these volunteers have collected price data on turkey, diced stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crust, whipped cream and whole milk.

The shopping bill for the classic dinner is a colorful mix of savings and little things. Seven items have dropped in price this year, including turkey, sweet potatoes, frozen peas, a vegetable tray with carrots and celery, pumpkin pie mix, pie crusts and whole milk. However, the remaining four items – rolls, fresh cranberries, whipped cream and diced stuffing – increased in price.

Prices for ham, russet potatoes and frozen green beans were included in the survey in 2018 to reflect more Thanksgiving favorites, with all products seeing price decreases compared to the previous year. Taking the additional items into account, the food cost rose to $77.34, or $7.73 per person, with more leftovers of course. The updated Thanksgiving dinner nearly doubled the cost savings of the classic basket – an 8.7% price reduction compared to 2023.

Türkiye – Enforce the food law

During the AFBF Thanksgiving survey, turkey accounted for an average of 43% of total dinner costs. This year, it’s just right – a 16-pound turkey makes up 44.2% of the classic 10-person feast. Because of their large share of the total dinner bill, year-over-year differences in grocery bills closely follow the change in turkey prices. This year’s 6% decline in turkey prices is a bit of an anomaly. According to the USDA’s “Turkeys Raised” report, farmers raised 205 million turkeys in 2024, down 6% from the previous year and the lowest figure since 1985. Highly pathogenic avian influenza is responsible for the decline in turkeys raised. Normally, fewer turkeys would mean a price increase, but turkey demand fell in 2024. The USDA estimates that per capita demand for turkey is 13.9 pounds per person, down one pound from 2023. This drop in demand has led to falling prices.

The rest of the Thanksgiving dinner table

Most ingredients in our survey have dropped in price, including fresh vegetables and the centerpiece of our Thanksgiving table, turkey. General vegetable price volatility led to a decline in prices for fresh vegetables, including the celery and carrot relish tray. Favorable weather conditions for dairy cows and feed resulted in a 14% decrease in the price of a gallon of whole milk. It is important to note that milk prices vary significantly between regions across the country.

The biggest additions to your Thanksgiving dinner bill this year come from processed products. Both rolls and cube fillings increased by over 8% from 2023. Non-food inflation and labor shortages have driven up costs for partners across the food supply chain.

Fresh cranberries saw the second largest price increase at 12%. This represents a stabilization in prices after a significant 18% price drop from 2022 to 2023. Despite the year-over-year price increase, cranberries are still more affordable than the historical average. In fact, adjusted for inflation, this is the lowest price for cranberries since 1987.

Regional differences – more than dressing vs. stuffing

Thanksgiving staples and what you call them aren’t the only things that change as you move across the United States. For those celebrating in the West, the grocery bill is at least 14% higher than the rest of the country: $67.05 for a group of 10. In other regions of the US, the bill is $8 or more lower. Dinner in the South costs the least at $56.81, closely followed by the Northeast at $57.36 and the Midwest at $58.90.

Looking at the expanded Thanksgiving basket, the West also presents a divide with the rest of the country. In the South, Northeast and Midwest, ham, russet potatoes and green beans can be added for a total price of $81.07, $81.37 and $83.04, respectively. However, the expanded Thanksgiving basket costs $93.33 in the West, over a dollar more per person.

The cost of food

Although the price of this year’s Thanksgiving meal is down 5%, it is still up nearly 20% compared to five years ago. Consumers are exhausted from years of inflation and it will take more than the improvements of the last two years to ease the pain. However, these declines reflect greater food affordability in the United States. Rising grocery bills might be a small shock, but food inflation represents only a fraction of the increases affecting other expenses. From October 2023 to 2024, home food prices in general rose only 1.1%, half of the overall economy’s price increase of 2.6%. Other bills that may see even bigger spikes include transportation (up 8.2%), housing (up 4.9%) and electricity (up 4.5%). Adjusted for inflation – or if your dollar had the same total purchasing power as a consumer in 1984, just before this survey began – this would be the cheapest Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey, aside from being the outlier 2020. Despite the declining purchasing power of the dollar, some of the goods in our shopping cart are at their long-term lowest prices, even when measured against the “current dollar” price. Cranberries are at their second lowest price since 2015, following the sharp price drop last year.

We can also look at food affordability through wages. American consumers spent 6.7% of their spending on food in 2022, including food eaten away from home or taken out, the lowest percentage in the world. By comparison, food as a share of spending is 8.5% in the UK, 16.2% in Brazil and up to 59% in developing countries such as Nigeria.

The average American also has to work fewer hours to buy the same meal than in previous years. Wages continued to rise faster after the COVID-19 pandemic, even as inflation cooled. With average wages increasing 4% from 2023 to 2024, we had to use 9% less work time to pay for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.

Back on the farm

While consumers are seeing some signs of price stability in food retail, farmers are experiencing lower and more volatile prices at the farm. And just like consumers, they are also victims of inflation as their production costs have risen sharply in recent years. The USDA projects that net national agricultural income will decline by $6.5 billion in 2024.

Put simply, farmers are price takers and accept the greater price volatility that brings price stability to the food supply. On average, 9.3 cents of every dollar spent on food goes back to the farmer who produces it; However, this proportion varies from product to product. When products are less processed, a greater portion of each dollar goes back to the farmer, and consumers also experience greater price volatility faced by the farmer. Examples include products such as meat, milk and vegetables, whose prices tend to fluctuate more at the grocery store, giving consumers a sense of the price volatility that farmers experience.

Thank you for supporting farms

The farmers and ranchers who grow the food on your table this Thanksgiving face many challenges. Low crop prices, poor growing weather, disasters like recent hurricanes and changing international markets threaten farmers’ livelihoods. Congress has provided aid in the past in the form of the farm bill and emergency disaster relief. The most recent agricultural law expired this fall and is already six years old and outdated; and disaster relief has been short and severely delayed in recent years, hindering the recovery of farmers and rural communities. When this support is timely and effective, it is one of the most important tools for keeping America’s food supply safe, affordable and secure.

Diploma

According to AFBF’s national Thanksgiving survey, this year’s Thanksgiving meal will cost consumers about 5% less this year, although it is still nearly 20% more expensive than it was five years ago. The long road to reducing inflation has exhausted many Americans, including farming families who have been forced between falling prices for their output and higher prices for their inputs. Farmers assume much of the risk of the food system to help keep food plentiful and affordable. In difficult times, they have relied on sound agricultural accounting (and effective disaster relief) to ensure the survival of the business.