The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah appears to hold, but the IDF warns the Lebanese not to return home

After nearly 14 months of deadly bombing, calm reigned in the skies over southern Lebanon and northern Israel on Wednesday as a ceasefire negotiated by the United States took effect.

If the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah – the powerful Iran-backed Lebanese militant and political group – succeeds, it will be a rare moment of diplomatic success in the multi-front conflict raging across the Middle East.

President Joe Biden said the ceasefire he announced Tuesday should be permanent, even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that he would not hesitate to attack Hezbollah again if it re-arms or attacks Israel again.

The noise of warplanes, rockets and artillery was replaced by dancing and singing in parts of Lebanon as news of the ceasefire was announced late Tuesday.

Despite the looming ceasefire, it is not clear when people in Lebanon and Israel will be able to return home.

“We are happy because we will return to our country and our home in the south,” Hala Saeed, a Lebanese woman who was displaced from her homeland, told The Associated Press.

But even amid the jubilant scenes of flag-waving and music outside her shelter in the Lebanese city of Sidon, there was more than a hint of sadness and caution.

“Our joy is very great,” Kamal al-Haj Ali, another displaced resident, told the AP. “Of course we cannot forget the grief of our martyrs, the people in our villages, the blood is still on the ground.”

While the war in Gaza has attracted the most international attention, the conflict in Lebanon has paralleled a humanitarian crisis, with 3,500 people killed and 1.2 million displaced in Lebanon. According to local officials, 60,000 people were forced from their homes in northern Israel, killing 80 soldiers and 50 civilians.

The ceasefire brokered by Washington and France effectively restores an old agreement that ended the 2006 war between Israel and Lebanon but was never fully implemented.

Under UN Resolution 1701, Israeli forces are to leave southern Lebanon and Hezbollah will withdraw north of the country’s Litani River, about 29 kilometers from the border with Israel. They will be replaced by 5,000 soldiers from the Lebanese army, which is not officially a party to the conflict.

Netanyahu said the ceasefire was an opportunity to focus on Iran – without elaborating on what that meant for Israel’s arch-enemy – and to regroup his own forces after significantly weakening Hezbollah’s command structure and missile arsenal.

However, he warned that Israel would “respond vigorously” if the terms of the ceasefire were violated.

He did not say when those displaced by the fighting might be able to return to their homes in northern Israel.

Many felt they had no choice when Hezbollah began firing on Israel, destroying homes and buildings and turning once-thriving communities into ghost towns. It is unclear when residents staying in hotels and other temporary accommodation will be able to return.

For Lebanon, the agreement offers an opportunity for detente after more than a year of violence that has caused deaths and displacement, as well as destroyed public services and infrastructure.

According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), more than 100 of the 207 health centers in the Lebanese conflict zone have been forced to close.

The crisis has also spread to neighboring Syria: 280,000 Syrians who fled the war in Lebanon are now returning across the border, “once again fleeing for their lives,” the UNHCR said in a briefing last month.

Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, still urged people on Wednesday to “return to their hometowns as they represent the collective identity and voice of the nation.”

Some took her advice, loaded cars with their belongings and headed home.

The Israeli military, which has not yet withdrawn from southern Lebanon, claimed the opposite.

Lt. Col. Avichay Adraee, Israel Defense Forces Arabic media spokesman, issued an “urgent warning to the residents of southern Lebanon” in a post on social media.

“You are prohibited from moving toward the villages that the IDF has requested to be evacuated or toward IDF forces in the area,” he said. “For your safety and the safety of your family members, you should refrain from moving to the area. We will let you know when it is safe to return to your homes.”

This issue has already threatened the fragile peace. The IDF said it fired on vehicles traveling toward “a no-movement zone” in Lebanon. The “suspects,” as the IDF called them, turned around, although it was not clear whether anyone was injured.

Still, the agreement was widely welcomed, from the European Union to Middle Eastern powers such as Egypt and Turkey. The Palestinian militant group Hamas also praised the deal, saying in a statement on Wednesday that it had “shattered Netanyahu’s illusions” of “defeating the resistance forces or disarming them.”

But the ceasefire says nothing about the ongoing violence in Gaza, where more than 44,000 people, most of them women and children, have been killed in Israel’s military campaign against Hamas, according to local health authorities.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan told MSNBC on Wednesday that the administration would make another push for a ceasefire in the Palestinian territories after a year of similar failed attempts.

“President Biden intends to begin this work today by having his envoys work with Turkey, Qatar, Egypt and other actors in the region,” he said.

Israel launched this offensive after Hamas militants launched the attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and kidnapping about 250. The next day, Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel, returning fire in an exchange that has continued ever since.

There was disagreement within Israel over the ceasefire agreement.

About 37% of people support the conditions, 32% are against and 31% don’t know, according to a snap poll by Channel 12 television on Tuesday. Among Netanyahu coalition supporters, support was even lower: 20% support, 45% oppose, 35% don’t know.

Ultranationalist National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir was the only member of Israel’s War Cabinet to speak out against the deal. Late Tuesday he posted opposite

He said this “actually misses a historic opportunity to hit them hard and bring them to their knees.”