Thanksgiving travel in New York State: Start of rain, lake effect snow over the weekend

Syracuse, NY – Getting to family dinner on Thanksgiving Day shouldn’t be a problem in most of upstate New York, but getting home for the weekend could be treacherous in snowy lake effect areas.

As the first wave of the storm system moves from the Plains into New York state on Thursday, temperatures in the valleys and along the I-90 corridor are expected to be warm enough to produce rain but little snow.

According to the National Weather Service, Thanksgiving temperatures are expected to be relatively mild, with highs in the 40s across the Upstate.

The hills of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill Plateau could see some wet snow on Thanksgiving, especially at elevations above 1,800 feet, the weather service said.

The weather pattern changes dramatically Thursday evening as a cold front moves in, bringing with it the coldest temperatures of the year so far. Over the weekend, high temperatures will rarely, if ever, exceed freezing.

And that cold air will blow over the warm Great Lakes, producing the first significant lake-effect snow of the season, according to the weather service.

Winds will likely be from the west on Friday and into the start of the weekend, keeping lake effect snow limited to Tug Hill and the western Southern Tier. More than 7 inches of snow could fall in those areas, the weather service said.

Winter storm warnings are in effect Friday through Monday morning for Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and the southern half of Erie counties in western New York, and for Oswego, Jefferson and Lewis counties on Tug Hill.

Winds could produce lake effect snow from the Upper Great Lakes as well as Lakes Erie and Ontario.

“There is a potential for a significant, long-lasting lake effect snow event,” the weather service said. “Traveling could be very difficult or impossible with very poor visibility and deep snow cover on the roads.”

As the weekend progresses and into early next week, winds are expected to shift and blow from the northwest. That could bring heavy lake effect snow to Rochester and Syracuse and as far south as Oneonta.

It is still too early to say exactly where and how much snow will fall. Lake effect snow bands can be narrow and highly dependent on wind direction, which is difficult to predict several days in advance.