Thanksgiving meals could be cheaper in 2024 as turkey prices fall

Thanksgiving is a time to gather with loved ones, show gratitude for the abundance of life – and of course, eat.

And when it comes to Thanksgiving food, Americans appear to be getting relief on their grocery bills this year after several years of rising costs.

A “classic” Thanksgiving feast for a group of 10 people will cost an average of $58.08 in 2024 – 5% less than 2023 and 9% less than 2022, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, a trade group for farmers and Rancher.

Analysis includes turkey, diced stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, heavy cream and whole milk.

Prices for this basket of foods were at a record high of $64.05 in 2022, the Farm Bureau said.

Households that add ham, russet potatoes and frozen green beans to the mix would pay an average of $77.34 in 2024 — an 8% decrease from 2023, according to the Farm Bureau.

The annual price drop will be welcome news for many households: According to a recent Deloitte survey, 44% of people hosting Thanksgiving this year are concerned about the cost of the event.

Economists say the decline is largely due to various supply and demand dynamics that are driving down prices for key staples – especially for Turkey – as well as a general decline in food inflation in the US.

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“Food inflation has been pretty low,” said Robin Wenzel, head of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. “You see some good relief there.”

However, a classic Thanksgiving meal is still 19% more expensive than it was in 2019, according to Farm Bureau.

“Declines don’t really erase the dramatic gains we’ve had,” said Bernt Nelson, a Farm Bureau economist.

Turkey price movements have “definitely had the biggest impact” on the overall cost of a Thanksgiving meal this year, Nelson said. That’s because a 16-pound bird accounts for 44% of the total Thanksgiving grocery bill, he said.

According to the Farm Bureau, the national average cost of a 16-pound turkey has decreased 6% from 2023. Overall, turkey prices fell about 4% last year, according to the Consumer Price Index.

Turkey has been a “strange topic” this year, Nelson said.

On the one hand, turkey supply has declined “significantly,” he said. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, farmers raised about 205 million turkeys in 2024, down 6% from 2023. That’s the lowest number since 1985, Nelson said.

This is largely due to the impact of bird flu, a deadly and contagious bird disease that has resulted in the deaths of about 14 million turkeys since 2022, he said.

A lower supply would tend to increase prices, other things being equal. But consumer demand has also declined. So far this year, per capita turkey consumption is down about a pound, he said.

The overall impact was lower turkey prices.

Meanwhile, prices for whole milk, a key ingredient in cakes and other recipes, fell significantly – by 14%, Nelson said.

This was largely due to the U.S.’s “favorable” weather conditions for dairy cows – both in terms of their overall well-being and the crops they eat – helping to boost milk production, Nelson said.

Of course, not everything is cheaper.

Prices for processed foods like rolls and diced stuffing, for example, rose more than 8% from 2023, the Farm Bureau said. This is primarily due to non-food inflation, such as labor costs, driving up prices “for partners across the food supply chain,” the group said in its analysis.

Aside from labor costs, many factors contributed to rapidly rising food prices during the pandemic.

For example, food prices rose faster in 2022 than in any year since 1979, driven in part by an avian flu outbreak that impacted egg and poultry prices, while the Russian invasion of Ukraine “added other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs reinforced”. “, says the USDA.

Higher costs for energy, including gasoline and diesel fuel, are leading to higher prices throughout the food supply chain, such as when food is distributed to store shelves, experts say.

“Growth in food prices slowed in 2023 as wholesale food prices and these other inflation factors declined beginning in 2022,” the USDA said, and it has continued to decline in 2024.

According to Wenzel of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, consumers looking to save money on their Thanksgiving meal in 2024 can do so by switching between store brands and brand names for certain foods.

According to a Wells Fargo analysis, a menu of all private label items to feed 10 friends and family members would result in a total savings of $17.

Consumers often pay a premium for branded items, but that’s not the case in all cases this year.

For example, cranberries from brand manufacturers are on average cheaper than their own brand, said Wenzel.

“When shopping this year, it really comes down to doing a little research,” Wenzel said.