Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper than last year, but the West has the most expensive grocery bills

Frozen turkeys are for sale at a grocery store in New York City on November 14, 2022. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Some prices on grocery store shelves may have been on an upward trend, but overall Americans are expected to pay less for their Thanksgiving dinner for the second year in a row.

That’s according to the American Farm Bureau Federationwhich has been tracking the cost of Thanksgiving classics for 39 years. This year, a meal for 10 people will cost about $58.08, down about 5% from 2023, according to the survey. However, that is still 19% more than pre-pandemic prices.

But Western states will face a bill that is 14% more expensive than the rest of the country, the association wrote. In the West, a classic dinner for 10 people this Thanksgiving costs about $67.05. The holiday meal is expected to be cheapest in the South at about $56.81, followed by the Northeast at $57.36 and the Midwest at $58.90.

In the West, food prices at grocery and convenience stores are expected to rise about 2.5% this year compared to 2023 levels, according to Dave Davis, president and CEO of the Utah Food Industry. But food inflation (excluding restaurants) is trending in a good direction, he said.

“Due to the large inflation we experienced during the pandemic, and also as things eased with the pandemic, we are not back to pre-pandemic levels,” Davis said Tuesday. “And to be honest: inflation always tends to rise.”

Restaurants could see an increase of about 4.7% by the end of the year. But for grocery stores, the increase is at a manageable level, he said.

“You want to see inflation where wage growth only slightly exceeds inflation,” Davis said.

What was measured?

For a week, volunteer shoppers from all 50 states and Puerto Rico visited their local grocery store in person or virtually to collect prices on turkey, diced stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, and pumpkin pie mix and crusts, Whipped cream and whole milk, the survey says. They looked for the best possible prices, but didn’t use special promotional coupons or combo purchase offers.

They found that prices for most of these items fell. But four of them – rolls, fresh cranberries, whipped cream and diced stuffing – were gone.

Turkey, the centerpiece of the festival, which accounted for 44% of the price charged by buyers this year, saw a 6% drop in costs compared to 2023. That’s an anomaly, said the economists who wrote the study, because bird flu has led to a decline in available turkeys, but demand for them has also fallen, leading to lower prices.

Anecdotally, Davis said he has never heard Utah Food Industry members discuss significant turkey cost increases. Since it’s the main course for most people, Davis estimates Utah’s numbers are similar to those in the study.

“Everyone has their own preferences for what Thanksgiving dinner should look like. I think our turkey costs were pretty good and pretty consistent with those numbers,” Davis said.

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Bird flu led to a rise in egg prices in the state for about a year, he said. However, they are “back in trend”. And for shoppers looking for last-minute items on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, it’s pretty smooth sailing.

Both Davis and American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall acknowledged that many are suffering from inflationary pressures. But, they said, there is something to be thankful for this holiday; Food in the country is plentiful and among the most affordable in the world.

“To sustain this, we need a strong farm bill that allows Americans to pursue their dreams without worrying about feeding their families,” Duvall said in a news release. “A new farm bill with a modernized safety net to support those who grow crops and livestock ensures farmers can weather tough economic times and continue to provide food for America’s families, not just at the holidays, but all year long.”

The federal farm law, which sets agriculture and conservation policy for the next five years, is on hold after Congress let it decay September 30, when the election was approaching. If a new bill or extension is not passed until the end of the yearthe benefits included therein (including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP) expire.

As for Utah as a whole, Davis said there are no food shortages and retailers are doing their best to get people through the holidays.

“Sometimes it can be frustrating, especially when you need an item last minute and that item may not be available. So be patient and be patient with your fellow buyers,” Davis said. “And keep your eyes open. Around the Thanksgiving holiday, many retailers often run sales that can benefit you and your family.”

Individual prices

• 16-pound turkey: $25.67 or $1.68 per pound (down 6.1%)

• 14 ounces cubed stuffing mix: $4.08 (up 8.2%)

• 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.40 (down 2.9%)

• Half pint of whipped cream: $1.81 (up 4.7%)

• 1 pound frozen peas: $1.73 (down 8.1%)

• 1 dozen rolls: $4.16 (up 8.4%)

• Other Meal Preparation Ingredients: $3.75 (minus 5.1%)

• 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.15 (down 6.5%)

• 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.21 (down 14.3%)

• 3 pounds sweet potatoes: $2.93 (down 26.2%)

• 1-pound vegetable tray (carrots and celery): $0.84 (down 6.4%)

• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.35 (up 11.8%)

Source: American Farm Bureau Federation