Stanford vs. San Jose State Predictions, Picks, Odds for College Football Week 14

It’s time for the Bill Walsh Legacy Game as the Stanford Cardinal (3-8) take on the San Jose State Spartans (6-5) in Week 14 today. Kickoff is at 4:00 p.m. ET at CEFCU Stadium, and CBS will broadcast the live broadcast.

It will be the regular season finale for both teams. Stanford didn’t show as much improvement as many expected in its second year under Troy Taylor, while SJSU was better than many expected in its first year of the Ken Niumatalolo era.

Find out why I think Stanford can finish well despite a slow start in my Stanford vs. San Jose State game predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 29th.

Stanford vs. San Jose State prediction and best bet

Who will Stanford win against San Jose State?

Stanford. I’m upset that SJSU just had a brutal performance last Friday, and I can’t trust a team as a favorite when their quarterback can’t even complete 20% of his passes, which was the case with SJSU’s Walker Eget against last week UNLV.

The Cardinals are a young team that has made progress recently, defeating Louisville two games ago. There is a big difference in strength over time between these two teams, so the Spartans may be caught off guard.

My best choice
First Half Under 27.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

The San Jose State Spartans just played a game in which their starting quarterback Walker Eget completed four of his 22 pass attempts. The books saw this and set the total for their next game at 55.5, with the first half total at 27.5.

No thanks – give me the under.

Certainly there was inclement weather in last week’s game against UNLV, which contributed to Eget’s deficiencies in the air. Still, good offensive teams will do it, and the Spartans didn’t.

The Spartans want to throw (sixth in pass percentage), but it’s difficult to do so efficiently when you can’t block (123rd in PFF rating for pass blockers). Stanford doesn’t have a great defense, but its strength is defensively, making this a good matchup in which it can create some pressure and make Eget uncomfortable.

Their identity was on the defensive side of the ball in their first year under Ken Niumatalolo. The Spartans rank 22nd in EPA per play on that side of the ball, led by a strong rushing defense (20th in EPA per play) and a strong defensive front (30th in line yards, 35th in stuff rate ).

The Stanford Cardinals don’t have much ability to run the ball, averaging 3.6 yards per rush while ranking 102nd in rushing success rate. The offensive line has struggled massively (117th in line yards, 126th in stuff rate, and 131st in front-seven chaos), and it should be more of the same against a capable SJSU defensive front.

Quarterback Ashton Daniels has as many touchdowns as interceptions (nine) and averages 6.3 yards per attempt. The good folks at PFF rank Stanford as the 126th ranked offense (62.8), and that’s a sign of a team that can’t block, can’t run and can barely throw.

Both teams trended toward the minors this season with identical 4-7 O/U records. Troy Taylor’s Cardinal try to slow down whenever possible and rank 104th in plays per minute (2.11). Fresh off one of the worst box scores a quarterback has ever seen, it’s hard to imagine Eget and the Spartans taking things from 0-60.

SJSU has won the first half under in nine of its last 12 games. I’m betting that I’ll come through once against the team and consider under 27.5 in the first half to be my best bet.

Same parlay between Stanford and San Jose State (SGP)

Handicapping is about more than just “this team has better stats/metrics so I’ll bet them against the spread.” Allow me to elaborate on a few other factors that led me to agree with the Cardinal.

Stanford is still a young team undergoing a rebuild, so it stands to reason that they would be a bad team if they start the year and finish stronger. Taylor’s team shocked the world with a 38-35 victory over Louisville two weeks ago and almost followed up with a win over Cal, but lost 24-21 in the final seconds.

Does SJSU improve as the season progresses? The Spartans have lost two of their last three games and have quarterback concerns.

The strength of the schedule also plays a role. Stanford has played the likes of Clemson, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, SMU and Louisville – all heavy favorites over SJSU. According to ESPN’s FPI, Stanford is ranked 14th in strength of schedule, while SJSU lags behind at 116th.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

More college football picks and odds from Covers

Odds Stanford vs. San Jose State

Stanford vs San Jose State live odds

Opening odds for Stanford vs. San Jose State

• Stanford vs. San Jose State spread: San Jose State -2.5
• Stanford vs. San Jose State Moneyline: Stanford +125, San Jose State -145
• Stanford vs. San Jose State Over/Under: 55.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Stanford vs. San Jose State spread and over/under analysis

• One-dimensional, pass-first offenses struggled against Stanford. The Cardinal defeated Syracuse (26-24) and stayed close to TCU (34-27 loss).
• Stanford is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games against SJSU. The Cardinals are 10-1 in that span.
• Sixteen different Stanford players made their first collegiate starts this season, the eight most in the FBS. You would think that a young team like this would improve at the end of the year and we’ve seen that come to fruition recently.
• 61% of Covers consensus picks support SJSU, while 54% are under.

Stanford vs San Jose State betting trend worth knowing

SJSU has hit the minors in eight of its last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for Stanford vs. San Jose State.

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