Rent-a-Kicker: Week 13 – Footballguys

No position is more unpredictable in fantasy football than that of the kicker. Year after year, there is no lower correlation between preseason drafting and postseason ranking at any position. No position has a lower correlation between its performance one week and its performance the next week. No position has a lower correlation between projected points and actual points.

Additionally, placekicker is the position with the narrowest margin between the best players and the mediocre players as far as fantasy is concerned. After all, most fantasy GMs only carry one kicker at a time, meaning there are a dozen or more starting kickers sitting around on waivers at any given time. Given this, it rarely makes sense to allocate resources to the position. Instead, GMs are best served by rotating through whichever available kicker has the best weekly matchup.

Each week I will evaluate the situations each kicker finds themselves in (ignoring the talent of the kicker himself) to help you find perfect starting production outside of the waiver wire.

Jake Bates (1 FG in 1 attempt, 3 XPs, 6 points)

Thanks to a stifling defensive performance, the game against the Colts was never in doubt, although the offense took it easy with its lowest point total since Week 3. Bates scored six points, ranking 15th among all kickers.

Austin Seibert (2 FGs in 3 attempts, 0 XPs, 6 points)

Seibert was one of the best fantasy kickers of the season, but he had a nightmare day against the rival Cowboys. He made field goals from 41 and 51 and failed on his third attempt from 51, which is understandable. But he saw one of his kickoffs returned for a touchdown with 2:49 left, seemingly putting the game out of reach, and then as Washington mounted an improbable comeback, he missed the potential game-winning kick after a miraculous 86-yard hail Mary with 21 seconds left (his second missed extra point of the day). And while it had no bearing on the outcome (and in fact had only a slight positive impact on Washington’s chances), Dallas returned the ensuing onsides kick for its second return touchdown in the final three minutes of the game. Seibert finished 15th this week, and it’s the kind of loss that sometimes leaves teams looking for scapegoats.

Spencer Shrader (3 FGs on 3 attempts, 3 XPs, 12 points)

The Chiefs didn’t expect to need a game-winning field goal against the Carolina Panthers, but that’s the NFL for you. None of his kicks that day were particularly difficult, but their rookie kicker, replacing an injury, was up to the task, completing his kicks perfectly and finishing sixth for the week.

Jason Sanders (2 FGs in 2 attempts, 4 XPs, 10 points)

The Dolphins’ offense is completely different with Tua Tagovailoa at center, and Sanders is one of the main beneficiaries. Miami is averaging 25 points per game in seven games with Tagovailoa and just 10 points per game without Tagovailoa. For Sanders, that’s 8.7 points per game with and 5.5 points per game without. At the previous season-long pace, Sanders would currently be the No. 4 fantasy kicker. His 10 points in Week 12 ranked him 9th at the position.

Jake Elliott (3 FGs on 3 attempts, 4 XPs, 13 points)

Philadelphia has (deservedly) earned a reputation for being willing to keep fourth-down offenses on the field at the goal line, which often limits Elliott’s chances of padding his total on chip-shot field goals, but this one The tendency is sometimes exaggerated. Two of Elliott’s kicks came from the 3- and 8-yard lines, and his 13 points were his second-highest total of the week.

To date, Rent-a-Kicker has made 60 weekly recommendations. These 60 kickers averaged 7.83 points, compared to 7.75 in 2023, 6.82 in 2022, 8.45 in 2021, 7.39 in 2020 and 7.39 in 2019. This average would currently be in 9th place. Our top 3 picks average 8.25 points, which would rank 4th.

Managers who randomly select from our top three picks each week would have received 99 points so far. The top 12 kickers by ADP in the preseason were Justin Tucker (92), Brandon Aubrey (99), Harrison Butker (93), Jake Elliott (86), Ka’imi Fairbairn (111), Younghoe Koo (86), Jake Moody (89). ), Evan McPherson (83), Cameron Dicker (99), Jason Sanders (89), Tyler Bass (96) and Jason Myers (76) (each kicker). 6 points for each game missed to reflect typical historical replacement value.

Our streamers continue to meet or surpass every kicker except Fairbairn. On average, drafted kickers scored 7.63 points, about 0.62 points per game less than our streaming recommendations.

Last week I noted that Bates was on pace to exceed the 50 percent roster mark, which would rule him out for rent-a-kicker consideration. I noted, however, that readers were free to add it and start with it as long as it remained a great piece; Therefore, I would continue to consider it “suitable” until the model no longer recommends it (at which point I would like to add a note here that it is probably time to move on).

He’s ranked as the top pick in Week 13, so it’s not the right time to move on.

I’ve been asked by several readers about Boswell, who is the No. 1 fantasy kicker so far this year but is consistently ranked as a Poor Play or Avoid in our weekly picks. (Spoiler: It ends up being a “poor play” again this week.) I plan to do a much more in-depth look at projecting kickers, how the model works, and why it hasn’t been a Boswell fan so far this year. I will add a link to this statement here once it is online. So check back later this week if you’re interested. I’ll share the link again next week for those who missed it.

Here is a list of the teams with the best matchups based on Vegas projected totals and stadium, along with the expected kicker for each team. The top five players receiving waivers in over 50% of leagues based on NFL.com roster percentages are in italics and will be highlighted in next week’s column. Also note that these rankings are specific to situations; Occasionally teams will change kickers during the week, but all recommendations apply equally to whichever kicker ends up starting.

Photos provided by Imagn Images