Putting NFC North dominance in context: Best division since realignment?

The NFL’s Thanksgiving schedule includes three-quarters of what could be the league’s most dominant schedule since the league’s realignment in 2002.

The 2024 NFC North is the first league since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to feature three teams with at least eight wins through Week 12, led by the 10-1 Detroit Lions, who set an NFL all-time record most wins in a season by at least 38 points (three, all outside the division).

The Lions face the division rival Chicago Bears (4-7) in Thursday’s early game before the 8-3 Green Bay Packers play the late game against the Miami Dolphins of the AFC East, the 2024 NFC North – which includes the 9th seed – 2 Minnesota Vikings – stands out. It could well determine who takes home the Lombardi Trophy.

The Lions (+260), Packers (+750) and Vikings (+850) are among the top 7 in Super Bowl odds and in the top 4 in odds to win the NFC, along with the Philadelphia Eagles (+ 325). ). The Lions remain Super Bowl favorites and are well ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs (+450), while the NFC North has the smallest chance of becoming the champion at +175, half of the second-place AFC West (+350).

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The table below shows where all eight divisions rank in each season since league realignment in 2002 in terms of points margin per game (X-axis) and win percentage (Y-axis) in non-division games in the first 12 weeks of each Season are ranked. The 2024 NFC North (red dot) ranks first among these 184 divisional seasons in average points margin (+9.5) and second in winning percentage (.765), according to TruMedia.

Only the 2022 NFC East (26-7) had a better record than the 2024 NFC North (26-8) in non-division games in Week 12, but the current NFC North had a far better average points margin (+9.5 to + ). 5.1) in these games.

Here’s what you need to know about where the NFC North stands and what it needs to do to become the most dominant division over a full season since realignment.

1. The NFC North is by far the most dominant division this season.

Scheduling rotation (which we’ll discuss in more detail later) is part of the equation, but this level of dominance is extreme.

AFC North teams lead in total wins against opponents that currently have a winning record (11) and in total non-division wins in those games (nine). The NFC North is in second place with eight and six.

Since 2002, the NFC North has a lead of +323 points through Week 12, which is 64 points ahead of the second-place NFC West in 2013 (+259). That’s bigger than the difference between the 2013 NFC West and the sixth-place division spread, the 2011 NFC North (+200). The table below shows the only divisions since 2002 with PPG margins greater than 7.0 through Week 12, led by the 2024 NFC North.

2. Strong defense was key to the NFC North dominating its non-divisional schedule.

The 2024 NFC North ranks first among 184 divisions since 2002 in defensive EPA per game against non-division opponents, compared to 69th in offensive EPA per game.

All four NFC North teams rank in the NFL’s top 10 in defensive EPA per game in all games this season. They’re all in the top five if you isolate just the non-division games. The Lions and Packers also rank in the top 10 in offense in all-game and non-division games.

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3. The dominance of a weak AFC South accounts for 61 percent of the NFC North’s +323 point gap in non-division games.

The NFC North teams are 8-0 with a margin of +144 against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. They are 14-2 with a +197 differential against the entire AFC South. Bad teams get kicked out. The NFC North did its part.

45 percent of the +323 difference in non-division games comes from matchups with the Jaguars and Titans, while 61 percent comes from matchups with the AFC South overall.

The six other divisions are a combined 9-9 against the AFC South, with a difference of +14. That includes a 6-7 mark with a +21 differential for AFC East teams.

4. The NFC North has a 6-4 record against non-division opponents that had winning records through Week 12. Here’s a full review.

The Bears are the only NFC North team without a win over a team that currently has a winning record. They are 0-3 in those matchups, led by their loss to Washington against Jayden Daniels Hail Mary. The rest of the NFC North has a record of 6-1 in those games, with three wins over Houston, two over Arizona and one over Seattle.

The NFC North record would be 6-3 if we adjusted the parameters to allow non-division games against teams that had winning records at kickoff. Wins over Dallas, San Francisco and Tampa Bay would come into play.

5. NFC North teams will play 10 more games against non-division opponents this season. Here’s what the division needs to do to become the most dominant since 2002.

For competitive reasons, the NFL is postponing most division games later in the season. That leaves the NFC North with just ten games left outside of the division to extend its dominance or fall down the rankings. These games are listed below chronologically and with point spreads taken from various sources where available.

The 2013 NFC North holds the season-long PPG margin record against non-division opponents since realignment (+359 in 40 games, or 8.975 per game). This division included the 13-3 Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers (12-4), the Bruce Arians-coached Cardinals (10-6) and the 7-9 Rams.

NFC North teams must outscore their 10 remaining non-division opponents by 72 points to beat the 2013 NFC West and post the best overall season margin since 2002. That would give the division +395 in 44 games and a PPG differential of +8.977.

The best overall season record against non-division opponents since 2002 is shared by the NFC West in 2013 and the NFC South in 2007 at 30-10 (.750). The NFC North (currently .765 at 26-8) would reach that mark with a 7-3 record against non-division opponents.

The best team in the NFC North (Detroit) faces the toughest remaining opponent in the division (Buffalo) at home. The Seahawks’ recent improvement in defense could complicate Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay’s efforts to win in Seattle. The 49ers’ decline could help Chicago (Week 14) and Detroit (Week 17).

Green Bay and Minnesota can set the tone in Week 13. Both are favorites at home against non-division opponents.

(Photo of Josh Jacobs, center, and three Lions defensemen: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)

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