Predicting each of the Packers’ last six games (playoffs are a lock)

Heading into the final third of the 2024 NFL regular season, the Green Bay Packers are in great shape.

With a dominant 38-10 victory over the rival San Francisco 49ers last Sunday at Lambeau Field, the Packers improved to 8-3 on the year. And while they didn’t gain any ground in the NFC North, as the Detroit Lions (10-1) and Minnesota Vikings (9-2) each also picked up wins, Green Bay sits comfortably at No. 6 in the NFC playoff picture.

With six games to go, Matt LaFleur & Co. are already two games ahead of the Washington Commanders (7:5), who currently hold the last wildcard spot, in the loss list. They have a full two-game lead over the No. 8 seed Arizona Cardinals (6-5). And they’re three full games ahead of the only three other teams currently in the wild-card hunt, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams and the Niners, all of whom are 5-6.

You could also bring in the Seattle Seahawks (6-5), who are at the top of the NFC West and that division is completely winnable, but Green Bay also has a two-game lead over them. The same goes for the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons (6-5) if they stumble down the stretch.

That’s not to say the Packers can’t still win the North, because they absolutely can, as both the Lions and Vikings still have some challenging games left. But at this point, a wildcard spot seems more likely.

Let’s start, of course, with Thursday’s Thanksgiving duel against the Miami Dolphins. Let’s take a look at Green Bay’s last six games and see if we can predict the outcome of each one.

Week 13: vs. Miami Dolphins

With a 34-15 victory over the New England Patriots last Sunday, the Dolphins will bring a three-game winning streak to Lambeau Field on Thursday night. And since Tua Tagovailoa returned from his recent concussion, Miami’s offense has looked fantastic.

Still, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Tua struggles with the cold weather and has never won a game where the temperature was below 40 degrees at kickoff, resulting in a 0-7 mark in his career.

With highs in the low 30s in Green Bay on Thursday, it will be at least 10 degrees cooler at night. And that is generosity. This won’t be the only factor here, but the Packers win this game.

Prediction: Win (9-3)

Week 14: at the Detroit Lions

The Lions don’t appear to have a single weakness at this point and are only getting better as the season progresses.

Jared Goff threw five interceptions against the AFC South-leading Houston Texans a few weeks ago and the Lions still pulled out a three-point win. And on the go, no less. This isn’t easy.

The week before, of course, Detroit dominated Green Bay in Lambeau en route to a 24-14 win. Don’t let the final result fool you as the game wasn’t all that close. The Packers are threatened with defeat Football on Thursday evenings matchup that will dash their hopes of winning the division.

Prediction: Defeat (9-4)

Week 15: at the Seattle Seahawks

Lumen Field was once one of the most difficult places to get a win on the road. But this advantage no longer exists for the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks have gone just 8-7 at home since the start of the 2023 season, losing three of seven games there this season.

But even if you ignore the field itself, this Seattle team has just been so inconsistent this season. At times they seem to be the most formidable team in the NFC West. But in others they look absolutely terrible. Let’s not forget that one of the New York Giants’ two wins this year came against this team.

Seattle’s defense is among the bottom 10 in the league against the run, so expect Josh Jacobs to have a blast in this Week 15 game and lead the Packers to a double-digit win.

Prediction: Win (10-4)

Week 16: vs. New Orleans Saints

Remember when the New Orleans Saints were 2-0 and people thought they were real NFC contenders? Seems like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it?

After that 2-0 start, the Saints lost seven straight. To their credit, they have won their last two games under interim coach Darren Rizzi. And they could very well fight their way back into the NFC South race, as they are just two games behind the Atlanta Falcons and have some winnable games in front of them.

But the Saints’ Week 16 matchup continues Monday Night Football is not one of those winnable games. Only two teams currently allow more passing yards per game than New Orleans. Just as Jacobs will celebrate against Seattle, Jordan Love will light up the Saints in prime time.

Prediction: Win (11-4)

Week 17: at the Minnesota Vikings

Cheeseheads don’t want to hear it, but the Minnesota Vikings aren’t going away any time soon.

Sure, they had some issues after that surprising 5-0 start, but they’re back on track and easily boast one of the best defenses in the league right now.

Similar to the first game against the Lions, the Packers were dominated by Minnesota in their first game of Week 4, losing 28-0 before being eliminated in the fourth quarter, making the final look respectable at 31-29.

Expect Green Bay to be significantly more competitive the second time around in the first three quarters. Ultimately, however, the Vikings will win the season with one more day of rest than the Packers, as Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson will wreck Green Bay’s secondary.

Prediction: Defeat (11-5)

Week 18: vs. Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears had a chance to end their long losing streak against Green Bay and blew it.

Since the Packers now have 11 straight wins against the Monsters of the Midway, the only way they can lose this game is if they can’t move up or down in the postseason seedings and take a break as starters. However, since that likely won’t be the case, the winning streak increases to 12, giving the Packers a record of 12-5 on the year.

Prediction: Win (12-5)

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