Long-term forecast: KRAVEN THE HUNTER faces stiff competition in a crowded Christmas corridor

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Long-term forecast – December 13, 2024

Kraven the Hunter | Sony/Columbia Pictures

Domestic opening weekend price range: $20 million to $25 million

Sony’s long-delayed release is coming in December Kraven the Hunterstarring Aaron Taylor-Johnson as the eponymous antihero and directed by JC Chandor (margin call, Everything is lost, An extremely violent year). The release was originally scheduled for January 2023, then October 2023, and then August 2024. It’s been a long road to the big screen for the latest entry in Sony’s series of Spidey villain origin stories that – unlike the studio’s animated films Spider-Verse Series – not a repeat of your friendly neighborhood Spider-Man.

The series of delays could have serious implications Kravenis the box office hit. When the footage was first shown at CinemaCon 2022, great emphasis was placed on the film’s R rating, which was a first for comic book films at the time. At the time Kraven will be released, it will be the third film of its kind to hit theaters in 2024, following July’s film Deadpool and Wolverine— now the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time domestically ($636.7 million) and worldwide ($1.33 billion) — and in October Joker: Folie à Deuxwhich was once thought to be a potential $100 million opening film, but only grossed $58.3 million in its entire theatrical run. Not only Kraven Now lacking the marketing impact that its R rating once could have provided, it may fall victim to audience fatigue in its target demos.

Among Sony’s other live-action films set in the Spider-Man universe, an opening weekend would be in the $20-$25 million range Kraven at the end of the list, about February 2024 Madam Web ($15.3M domestic opening, $43.8M domestic total), but trailing everything else, including in April 2022 Morbius ($39 million domestic opening, $73.8 million domestic total), the series’ second-lowest opening to date. This would mean that the Venom trilogy with Tom Hardy would still be ahead. In fact, there is a very real chance KravenThe total domestic run might not even beat the October 2024 opening weekend average Venom: The Last Dance (Domestic opening: $51 million, $128.8 million domestic total after four weeks), the lowest grosser of Sony’s three Poison Movies. (The other two, October 2018 Poison and October 2021 Venom: Let There Be Carnageboth grossed $213.5 million domestically)

If there is a silver lining to be found KravenThe opening weekend forecast states that the film he has an opening weekend with is Warner Bros. Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim– is currently expected by our forecast panel with an even lower opening price of $8 million to $15 million. However, if our prediction comes true, both films will face stiff competition (for screens and viewers) from holdovers Bad part 1 And Moana 2where opening estimates have increased steadily since the start of the respective pre-sale periods.

Tracking updates (as of November 22nd)