Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants: Thanksgiving Showdown Predictions

It’s that time of year again, as the centuries-old tradition of Dallas Cowboys football on Thanksgiving Day is upon us. This year they host a 2-9 Giants team that hasn’t won a game since October 6th. Last week they benched Daniel Jones and later cut him, turning to Tommy DeVito to provide offense.

DeVito and the Giants were knocked out by the Buccaneers, and the quarterback suffered an injury in the game that makes his status for this game uncertain. In any case, the Cowboys are just 3.5-point favorites, reflecting the fact that they haven’t won a home game all year. Will this be the right thing? Let’s see what our authors think.

When New York has the ball

Put pressure on the quarterback that’s back there

Whether it’s Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock or the ghost of Charlie Conerly, the Giants offense is a mess right now. The running game was predictably bad and the passing game is even worse. However, they are particularly bad when under pressure: only three teams have worse EPA/dropback under pressure this year.

Enter Mike Zimmer and the Cowboys defense. Since the return of Micah Parsons, they have taken off and ranked sixth in pressure percentage in this game. And with DaRon Bland returning last week and Josh Butler emerging, the defense as a whole has been at its best when it comes to getting in the quarterbacks’ faces. That’s the key to success this Thanksgiving.

When Dallas has the ball

Feed Rico (again)

Cowboys fans have seen a lot of bad run defenses this year, but so have Giants fans. In fact, the Giants rank 31st in EPA/Run, just ahead of the Cowboys. They were actually worse against runs inside the tackles than Dallas, which is a surprise given the presence of Dexter Lawrence.

Well, no one runs the ball into tackles more often than Dallas, who fed Rico Dowdle for successful returns last week. Dowdle posted a 52.6% success rate on his 19 runs, the ninth-best mark among all backs in Week 12. The key to victory in this short week is to beat Dowdle against a weak Giants run defense.

Now for your BTB authors’ predictions…

Tom Ryle (7-4):

I think this could be the first time in 2024 that the Cowboys go into a game with the superior squad despite the numerous injuries, and I’m pretty sure Cooper Rush is a better quarterback than Tommy Devito (or Drew Lock). The big fear is that they will suffer disappointment after the bizarre, emotional victory over the Commanders. To combat this, the Giants have already signaled that they are in major rebuild mode by releasing Daniel Jones.

This time I’m going to let Dallas win 24-16 and hope I don’t jinx them.

Matt Holleran (6-5):

It’s hard to believe, but Sunday’s performance was the best we’ve seen the Cowboys play in nearly two months. While it wasn’t perfect by any means, they beat a then-7-4 Washington team on the road, which is certainly a good accomplishment. This week, the Cowboys finally have a chance to build some momentum when they take on a struggling New York Giants team.

It won’t be the dominance we’ve seen from Dallas on Thanksgiving the last two seasons, but they should be able to win this game. Their lack of offensive firepower will keep it close, but Dallas gets their second straight win in the division and gives us all a nice day in Turkey.

Give me the Cowboys, 24-16.

Jess Haynie (8-3):

Dallas will have the better quarterback and doesn’t seem ready to openly tank just yet, while the Giants have made their intentions clear. Dallas finally gets a home win, albeit a favorable one considering the opponent.

Cowboys 27, Giants 16.

Mike Poland (5-6):

Okay, let’s get into the positive, optimistic Thanksgiving spirit and declare another win for Dallas. The Giants’ offense will now rely on Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock to restore order to an offense that ranks last in passing touchdowns.

Last week, DeVito threw zero touchdowns. Sacks and pressure on the QB will seriously destroy the offense’s slim hope, but now the Giants’ offense is hoping that both starting tackles miss the game. Yeeeesh!

Cowboys win, 24-14.

Dana Bartholomew (8-3):

For the first time in a long time, I’ll be rooting for the Cowboys to win this week. I still have no faith in this Cowboys team. It took a crazy circus finish to win against the Commanders last week. So this pick is less about the Cowboys and more about how bad the Giants are. These teams are a little different than last time, with Cooper Rush and Tommy DeVito/Drew Lock leading the offense, but the outcome should be the same.

The Cowboys win 27-10 on Thanksgiving.

Brian Martin (7-4):

The Cowboys are bad, but the Giants are even worse. Both teams appear to be competing for a top-10 spot in the 2025 NFL Draft, but only the Giants appear to be taking that into account in their approach to the rest of the regular season. For this reason, I think the Cowboys will play to win and get their second straight “W” in this Thanksgiving matchup.

Give me Dallas, 24-13.

Chris Halling (4-7):

Although many fans are calling for the team to tank, I find it hard to believe that this team can’t beat the Giants. They were just blown out by a struggling Bucs team and will likely have to rely on Drew Lock as their starting quarterback on Thursday. The Cowboys defense will eat Thanksgiving and score two touchdowns.

Cowboys win 37-10.

RJ Ochoa (8-3):

It seems like the most ridiculous thing ever, but I truly believe the Dallas Cowboys will win and cover on Thanksgiving Day. They’re obviously bad and I still don’t think the playoffs are a realistic thing, although I’ll certainly have a certain opinion on Friday morning if they win that game, but they’re not the upstarts that the Giants are. Give me Dallas in a game we all enjoy while tryptophan flows through our systems.

Cowboys win, 23-10.

David Howman (7-4):

It seems like everyone expects the Cowboys to win this game, which is what makes me the most nervous. This team hasn’t won at AT&T Stadium since 2023, and while hosting the Giants with potentially a third quarterback on a short week seems like the perfect opportunity, I also have very little faith in the Cowboys to go with them potential to keep up.

I also have very little faith in the Giants, who at this point seem determined to tank the rest of the year. I think it’s a lot closer than it should be, but I think Mike Zimmer’s defense causes just enough confusion to get the win.

Cowboys win 23-18.