After 10,000 Chiefs-Raiders simulations, a forgotten icon has emerged as the best NFL bet on Black Friday

The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders meet on Black Friday in the AFC West showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. While the Chiefs have maintained their dominance in 2024, all eyes are once again on tight end Travis Kelce, although not for the reasons fans might expect. After rising to international fame in 2023 due to his high-profile relationship with Taylor Swift, Kelce has become a relatively minor part of Kansas City’s offense this season, especially with Isiah Pacheco’s injury status dominating the headlines this week.

But thanks to Dimers’ advanced NFL simulations, Kelce has become the most valuable betting opportunity on Black Friday. With over 10,000 simulations run for this matchup, Dimers has identified Kelces Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-113) as the best NFL bet for November 29th, offering bettors exceptional value.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Black Friday game overview

The Chiefs enter this matchup as heavy favorites, with a score of 27-15 predicted by Dimer’s predictions. Kansas City continues to dominate the AFC West at 10-1, led by Patrick Mahomes and a firing defense. Meanwhile, the Raiders are struggling at 2-9, with their offense near the bottom of the league in scoring.

Despite the Raiders’ tough fight, this game presents exciting opportunities for bettors, especially with Travis Kelce expected to reclaim his status as a key playmaker for Kansas City.

Game details:

• Date: Friday, November 29, 2024
• Start: 3:00 PM EST
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Opportunities: Chiefs -12.5 (-115), Over/Under 42.5 (-110)

Note: The odds in this article are the best available at the time of publication and are subject to change. Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM have both announced new Black Friday promotions eligible for NFL betting over Thanksgiving weekend, while Bet365’s $150 bonus bet offer has emerged as the most popular Chiefs-Raiders betting offer to date.

New simulations reveal the best choices for Black Friday

After 10,000 simulations of the Chiefs vs. Raiders game, Dimers’ NFL model has identified Travis Kelce’s Over 51.5 Receiving Yards as the top bet. Here’s why:

• Projection: 75.0 meters
• Probability: 80.8%
• Edge: 27.8%

With Kelce expected to lead Kansas City in receiving yards against a Raiders defense that has difficulty containing opposing tight ends, this bet is a high value play. Dimers’ simulations are known for uncovering real market advantages, and with a 27.8% edge, Kelce’s Prop is the standout bet for Black Friday.

Why Kelce’s prop stands out

Kelce’s 2024 season was quieter by his standards. In 11 games, the veteran tight end has accumulated 569 yards (56.9 YPG), significantly less than his typical output in recent years. Still, he remains Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target, especially in crucial matchups like this one.

Kelce has a proven track record against the Raiders. He racked up 90 receiving yards in the Week 8 clash earlier this season and regularly thrives in division games. With Mahomes projected to have 295 passing yards and Kelce projected to have 75 of those, the 51.5-yard line offers immense value.

Additionally, Kelce has rushed for more than 51.5 yards in six of his last eight games, including standout performances of 100 yards against Tampa Bay and 90 yards against Las Vegas. With the Raiders allowing opposing tight ends to produce significant production, there’s a good chance Kelce will shine again.

Supporting props for watching

While Kelce’s “Over 51.5 Receiving Yards” is the top pick, Dimers also highlighted a few other props worth considering for this game:

• Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown: 46.1% probability
• DeAndre Hopkins on 58 receiving yards: 36.0% probability
• Jakobi Meyer’s Anytime Touchdown: 34.5% probability

Each of these supports has value, but none reach the edge or reliability of Kelce’s receiving line.

Diploma

Travis Kelce may not be the headline-grabber he was in 2023, but on Black Friday he’s the centerpiece of one of the best NFL prop betting opportunities of the season. Backed by Dimers’ 10,000 simulations and a projected lead of 27.8%, Kelce’s Over 51.5 Receiving Yards is a data-driven bet you won’t want to miss.

As kick-off approaches, keep an eye on real-time updates, injury reports and market movements to ensure you maximize your betting advantage. With Kelce set to play a key role in Kansas City’s offense, Black Friday promises to be a profitable holiday for bettors.