NFL playoff picture: The Green Bay Packers’ path to the playoffs appears set

Last week it literally took last-second heroics KARL BROOKS for the Green Bay Packers to win against a downright terrible Chicago Bears team.

This week they met with the NFL equivalent of the villain in an ’80s high school movie. Ever since Jerry Rice fumbled, the San Francisco 49ers have repeatedly screwed over the Packers, stealing their lunch money, putting them in a locker, and pawning their house.

People who aren’t just Packers fans will say there’s an asterisk next to the absolute boat race of a game, but Keisean Nixon said it best:

The 49ers may have been missing a few key pieces, but they had their nepo-baby running back. Christian, the son of former Denver Bronco and current mustard salesman Ed McCaffery, had a miserable performance, including 2.8 yards per carry and a fumble caused by Keisean “I’M a Crook” Nixon.

So what does this mean for the playoffs? Let’s look at the numbers:

At the end of last week’s game, FanDuel had the Packers at -480 to make the playoffs. Currently Green Bay is at -2200! Holy buckets. The implied percentage at -480 is about 82%. The current implied playoff percentage for Green Bay is over 95%.

Their chances of winning the NFC North have gotten a little better as both the Vikings and Lions won their games this week. They were +1500 before the games and +1600 after.

Interesting note: The Packers have about the same odds of winning the Super Bowl as they do the division.

Things are looking up, especially compared to the end of last week. There’s a quick turnaround before the Miami Dolphins come to Lambeau for a Thanksgiving game. Green Bay is currently the favorite with a line of -3.5. The weather forecast shows it will be cold, with lows in the teens.

If you look at the Packers-specific odds page I just linked, there’s a fun little tip hidden in the “Futures” section. The odds of becoming NFC champions are +750. It looks like Vegas thinks the Packers have a reasonably good chance of getting to the Super Bowl, but expects them to get there by taking the long road.

Complete NFC rankings

1. Detroit Lions (10-1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2)
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5, win over ARI, win over ATL)
4. Atlanta Falcons (6:5. Loss against SEA)
5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
7. Washington Commanders (7-5)
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-5, loss to SEA)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6, 5-3 NFC)
10. Los Angeles Rams (5-6, win over SF, 3-5 NFC)
11. San Francisco 49ers (5-6, loss to LAR)
12. New Orleans Saints (4-7, 3-4 NFC)
13. Chicago Bears (4-7, 2-4 NFC)
14. Dallas Cowboys (4-7, 2-5 NFC)
15. Carolina Panthers (3-8)
16. New York Giants (2-9)