Fantasy football fact or coincidence: Is Jaylen… on his way to becoming WR1 in Miami?

Week 12 definitely brought a lot of excitement, starting with Thursday night’s snow game, followed by a thrilling fourth quarter that led to overtime in Chicago, KaVontae Turpin’s muffled 99-yard touchdown and a near upset in Carolina.

Tampa Bay, Detroit, Miami and Green Bay showed their beleaguered opponents who was boss with clear victories, while the Arizona Cardinals without Trey McBride (12/133 with 15 goals) could just as easily have stayed on a bye.

The star players appeared on Sunday Night Football, but that didn’t necessarily apply to the rest of the league. Many of our No. 1s let us down in Week 12, which made for an ugly fantasy week given the number of retirements and injuries we’ve already dealt with. Today we’ll take a look at the No. 2 guys who had big days and find out if the tide has turned for these teams (fact) or if the stars are about to shine bright again (coincidence).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks

After the bye in Week 10, Smith-Njigba was the Seahawks’ clear fantasy WR1. In those two games, he had 16 catches on 18 targets, while Metcalf had 11 catches on 14 targets. Smith-Njigba has the only receiving touchdown in that span. Tyler Lockett, on the other hand, was an afterthought with just six goals in the two games. With the second-highest average passing yards per game (257.2 yards), Geno Smith can easily hold onto two high-end fantasy receivers. In some ways it doesn’t matter who is 1A and who is 1B; Both are weekly fantasy starters.

While Smith-Njigba may seem like the wave of the future in his second year, it’s important to remember that Metcalf is only 26 years old. In PPR leagues, Smith-Njigba’s elite target percentage gives him an edge over Metcalf in the future. However, Metcalf’s speed and physicality at the catch point will earn him big fantasy games, occasionally at the expense of Smith-Njigba. In Week 13, Seattle faces the NY Jets, whose stout defense ranks second in passing yards and touchdowns allowed to opponents and first in completions allowed.

It will be a classic offensive strength vs. defensive strength in the Meadowlands, but I expect we’ll see a lot more from Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet considering the Jets have an average rush defense (at best). are the third most rushing touchdowns allowed per game. Temper your expectations for the Seahawks’ WRs this week, but expect both Smith-Njigba and Metcalf to be of use in better matchups, particularly in Weeks 14 and 16.

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Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Just when the fantasy world was ready to give up on Waddle, he finally had his big game (8/144/1), while Hill’s effort in the Dolphins’ huge win over New England was unforgettable (5/48). On the surface, this screams coincidence, especially when you factor in Hill’s ongoing wrist injury. But Waddle isn’t just a flash in the pan; he was WR13 in 2022 and WR23 in 2023 (fantasy points per game).

When Tua Tagovailoa is “on,” this offense can easily support 3-4 fantasy starters, a group that includes Jonnu Smith (9/87/1 on 11 targets in Week 12) and, of course, De’Von Achane, the two had receiving touchdowns in the win. It’s a quick turnaround for Miami as they take on the Packers in Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. It’s a bad matchup for wide receivers, but even in a week with no byes, I’m not sitting on Waddle or Hill.

Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

The painful or awe-inspiring part is that people actually started watching Addison because of all the off weeks and injuries. If you competed against him like I did, it was an early end to your hopes of victory. When you started it, everything was clear. Only Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs topped Addison in half PPR fantasy points this week, as Addison put up a sparkling 8/162/1 line against the Bears.

At the other end of the spectrum, Jefferson caught just two of five targets for 27 yards.

Recognize that the Bears have been one of the best defenses against the pass this season. It’s worth holding on to the knowledge that they’ll sell out to stop the opponent’s best weapon ready to be beaten by the next man in line. (Side note: The Bears get Detroit next, which could mean a nice day for Jameson Williams in Week 13.) Minnesota has two very fantasy-friendly WR matchups coming up in the next two weeks, so your final playoff appearance is probably Jefferson will defeat. Both Addison and Jalen Nailor are favorite end zone targets for Sam Darnold. So if the bye in Week 14 leaves you reeling, both would be worth another start against Atlanta (which gives the WRs the third-most fantasy points).

Noah Gray and Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Gray has burst onto the TE scene in the last two weeks, scoring two goals in each game. Kelce is still miles ahead in targets, catches and yards, but it’s been clear for some time that we’re not dealing with the same old fantasy bonanza this year. The Chiefs will do whatever it takes to win, and they have their eyes on another Super Bowl. So if that means keeping Kelce fresher in his age-35 season, they will do that.

Because of his good overall goal percentage (Buffalo has been an outlier in the last five games), Kelce is a must in the starting lineup. But given his 90% catch rate and his magnetism in the end zone, Gray can also be viewed as an upside addition, especially against the Raiders in Week 13.

Calvin Austin III and George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pickens leads all Steelers receivers in targets, catches and yards and has more than doubled Austin, who is second in every category. Still, Austin has four touchdowns to Pickens’ two and looked to be Russell Wilson’s go-to guy for some big yardage plays and a touchdown that gave Pittsburgh the lead in the snowy Week 12 game. However, he only saw three targets to Pickens’ seven, and I tend to go with that usage.

Austin will likely play one or two more ceiling games this season, but he will also have the clothes. That’s the nature of a WR2 in a shaky offense. Pickens will look to bounce back for his fantasy managers, likely starting in Week 13 against a Bengals defense that isn’t great at fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

While Anthony Richardson somehow came through for his fantasy managers, he didn’t really help them field and start their top WR. Josh Downs emerged as the WR1 in Indianapolis, with six more targets, eight more catches and two more touchdowns than Pittman, but it was Pittman who posted the better fantasy value in Week 12 for the first time this season.

As deep threats go, Alec Pierce is one of the best. In fact, he leads the Colts in receiving yards, averaging 13.1 yards per catch. Given that Pittman was drafted well before Downs and Pierce wasn’t drafted at all in most leagues, can we buy the Week 12 breakout?

First, Pittman’s 6/96 on seven targets doesn’t inspire awe, but they were among the catchiest passes Richardson threw in Week 12 (per FantasyLife Utilization Report). Richardson had a terrible 39.3% completion rate last weekend and only saved 61 rushing yards from his own dream day. Second, it now appears that Downs (shoulder) will not play in Week 13. The Colts were completely outclassed by Detroit in the brutal loss, but with a better matchup ahead of us – NE can definitely be beaten through the air, as Tua Tagovailoa just showed – I’ll go with Pittman.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

No one was better than Lamb in Week 12, but he certainly performed well in non-PPR leagues (10/67 on 12 targets). The Cooper Rush effect hasn’t been particularly beneficial to Lamb managers so far. Still, the massive stakes are there and there are better matches ahead, including the Giants on Thursday. This is a frustrating season for Lamb between Dak Prescott’s poor play, a defense that can’t get off the field, and now Rush, but what can you do but scream into the void? Lamb remains a must.

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants

I could just copy the Lamb blurb and paste it here. Overtalented WR1, poor QB play, now worse QB play. I won’t focus on New York’s defense as it’s mostly league average. Tommy DeVito’s experience in 2024 didn’t get off to the best start, but he didn’t commit turnovers and at least threw the ball to the right person. Nabers scored nine times and caught six for 64 yards in Week 12. The bad news is that the Giants faced one of the league’s best QB/WR fantasy matchups in the Bucs. They’ll have another good matchup as they head to Dallas for Türkiye Day. The Cowboys defense, as mentioned above, ranks near the bottom of the league in opponents’ time of possession, yards per game, and points per game. Nabers is a bright light in a very weak offense, but like Lamb, is still a must-have.