According to IDC, the global smartphone market is expected to grow 6.2% in 2024, driven by robust growth for Android in emerging markets and China

NEEDHAM, Mass., November 26, 2024 – Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow 6.2% year-over-year to 1.24 billion units in 2024, according to the latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker from International Data Corporation (IDC). This strong growth follows two years of sharp declines and is driven by pent-up demand for device upgrades. While 2024 marks a strong recovery, growth is expected to slow to low single digits from 2025 onwards, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% (2023-2028). Factors include increasing smartphone penetration, longer refresh cycles and headwinds from the rapidly growing used smartphone market.

“While GenAI remains a hot topic and a top priority for many vendors, it has not yet had a meaningful impact on demand or incentive for early upgrades,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “While we continue to believe that GenAI will revolutionize the user experience in the coming years, further investment is needed to increase consumer awareness and introduce a “must-have” feature that drives consumers to the store and creates the super cycle everyone is waiting for Currently, we expect GenAI smartphones to take their place in the premium flagship devices and continue to drop in price ranges, quickly falling to 70% of the price range by 2028 Smartphone market to grow.”

Driving this year’s 6.2% growth is rapid Android growth of 7.6% year-on-year, concentrated in APeJC, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, and China, particularly in low-end devices . In contrast, iOS is expected to grow at a modest 0.4% in 2024. Despite record-breaking performance in emerging markets such as India, Apple faces challenges in major markets such as China, the US and Europe. Looking ahead to 2025, the tide will turn as iOS is expected to grow 3.1% year-over-year, exceeding Android’s forecast 1.7% growth over the same period.

“New foldable phone models continue to make headlines despite low volumes in the market,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “In the third quarter, foldable devices fell 7.4%, despite most of the world’s leading vendors launching new models. Still, foldable devices will grow by 10.5% in 2024 and maintain double-digit growth through 2028 with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 15.9%. The pace of growth is slowing as Chinese vendors (who drive this segment) shift their focus and investments to GenAI smartphones. Unique use cases are also slowing growth.”

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About IDC Tracker

IDC Tracker products provide accurate and up-to-date market size, vendor share and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets in more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC’s trackers are updated semi-annually, quarterly and monthly. Tracker results are provided to customers in easy-to-use Excel files and online query tools.

For more information about IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, please contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 and [email protected].

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About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the world’s leading provider of market intelligence, advisory services and events for the information technology, telecommunications and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC provides global, regional and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC’s analysis and insights help IT professionals, executives and the investment community make fact-based technology decisions and achieve their key business goals. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world’s leading technical media, data and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC blog for industry news and insights.

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