Buffalo sets latest snowfall record; Winter weather ahead

But despite the remarkably late start, local meteorologists are expecting potentially wintry weather for the rest of the week, including a possible rain-snow mix on Thanksgiving night and lake effect snow on Thanksgiving weekend. The intensity and location of the lake effect system are currently uncertain, they said, but several models so far predict the heaviest rainfall will occur in the ski area.

“The trend is that most of the snow is south of the Buffalo area across the ski area,” said Dan Kelly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Buffalo, looking ahead to Sunday.

That doesn’t mean Buffalo Niagara will be completely spared.

“I’m confident there will be at least some limited lake effect through Sunday,” Buffalo News contributor and WIVB meteorologist Don Paul said Monday morning.

Both Paul and Kelly call the prediction of a lake-effect “storm” in the metro area premature.

“Things can change,” Kelly warned.

The Buffalo Bills’ Sunday Night Football matchup against the San Francisco 49ers will likely be at least partially influenced by the weather. Paul confidently said it would be the coldest home game of the season so far, with temperatures potentially dropping into the 20s. There should be more clarity on Wednesday and Thursday.

Given the overall uncertainty, Kelly suggested keeping an eye on weather updates.

“It’s a big travel weekend, so stay vigilant and monitor the future forecast,” Kelly advised. “Once we have a better idea of ​​where the snow will be heaviest, we will put together an alternative plan.”

The arrival of cold air on Tuesday will lower temperatures and, along with wind gusts of up to 40 miles per hour, give more of a feel of winter, forecasters agreed. Wind chills of over 20 degrees are expected, Kelly said. The cold is expected to continue.

A few showers are possible in Buffalo Niagara on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a chance of some snow at higher elevations. Paul doesn’t expect air travel concerns for Buffalo.

For Thanksgiving Day and the Turkey Trot, the NWS Buffalo forecast is uncertain, indicating the possibility of a rain-snow mix and temperatures in the upper 30s. However, there is disagreement between forecasting models; American and Canadian runs show the system moving south of the Buffalo Niagara region, while in the European model it hits the subway.

Regardless, none of the meteorologists are predicting a disastrous Thanksgiving.

Forecasters aren’t ruling out the possibility of snow accumulation over the weekend – particularly Sunday – but several factors are at play.

General conditions are ripe for lake effect: Lake Erie was 51 degrees Monday morning, Kelly said, about 5 degrees warmer than average.

“The lake is warm and there will finally be some real arctic air flowing through it,” Paul said.

Paul discussed some factors unique to the lake effect that could dramatically affect the intensity and location of the system’s brunt. It could be the difference between a lively or a lively, snow-covered Highmark Stadium.

The cold air mass may not carry much moisture, limiting precipitation even when the air hits a warm lake. A short wave could move through the north/northwest flow, changing wind direction and moving the band of snow from the Southern Tier into the metro area, he said. Short waves can usually be seen a few days in advance. On the other hand, wind shear could disrupt and weaken the system, Paul said.

In short, Paul said it might be difficult for the lake effect snow band to organize Friday and Saturday, but that could change. “By Sunday, there is a possibility that the lake effect could become more organized,” he said, “but we don’t know where it will become established.”

Whenever a snowflake falls at the airport this week, it will surpass the previous records for the last snowfall in a season: Nov. 22, 1946 and 1985, according to 1884 data from the National Weather Service Buffalo.

The delay in flake formation is in direct contrast to 1956, when the first snow fell on September 20, more than two months earlier.

As for the new record, Paul said it fits the pattern of recent events. Western New York experienced longer growing seasons and later frosts. The last two winters have been mild overall, punctuated by periods of severe winter weather.

“I’m not surprised the snow season is starting later,” he said.