50,000 Russians are ready to attack 20,000 Ukrainians in Kursk

On August 6, a powerful Ukrainian force entered Kursk Oblast in western Russia and captured what is now a 250-square-mile salient anchored by the town of Sudzha. On November 7, an equally strong Russian force launched a counterattack – aiming to advance towards Sudzha along the main road branching from Zelenyi Shylakh on the western edge of the salient.

In more than two weeks of hard fighting, the Russians have made little progress. The Zelenyi Shylakh-Sudzha road is littered with evidence of their failure: dozens of destroyed and abandoned armored vehicles.

But the Russians will not give up, and their biggest push could be imminent. The Kremlin has bolstered its roughly 50,000-strong corps in Kursk with thousands of North Korean troops as well as parts of two Russian airborne divisions, the 76th and 106th, as well as the 83rd Air Assault Brigade and the rebuilt 155th Marine Infantry Brigade. These and other units are stationed northwest of the road through Zelenyi Shylakh.

“In the near future, we expect a massive and, in my humble opinion, successful Russian advance on my flank in the Kursk region,” wrote Kreigsforschung, a Ukrainian Marine Corps drone operator who supported the Ukrainian Corps in Kursk.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given his general until the beginning of February to drive the Ukrainians out of western Russia. But the real deadline appears to be the Jan. 20 inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has vowed to end Russia’s broader war against Ukraine but whose passing proposals appear to be based on an unenforceable ceasefire that would freeze the front line .

Putin should be happy with any ceasefire that gives him control of 11 percent of Ukraine. But Putin would be unsatisfied to trade away this sliver of Kursk, however tiny it may be. The clock is ticking. “Two Russian VDV divisions, one VDV brigade and one marine brigade will launch an attack with many maneuvers,” war researchers warned, using the Russian acronym for “Airborne Forces.”

The 20,000-strong Ukrainian force in Kursk – including the 41st and 47th Mechanized Brigades, the 82nd and 95th Air Assault Brigades and the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade – is preparing for Russia’s renewed attack. The 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade, a reorganized former tank brigade, holds the line north of the road to Sudzha.

The brigade’s recent actions underscore the sheer violence of the escalating battle. It is extremely dangerous to move on the front line without armor protection. Therefore, the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade has deployed some of its 60 T-64BV tanks as improvised supply vehicles.

In a chaotic operation on or before November 16, one of the 42-ton, three-person T-64s transported a load of food to an entrenched infantry unit—and then immediately opened fire on nearby Russians with its 125-millimeter main gun. As the tank retreated to its forest base, a Russian drone struck, damaging the tank but not stopping it. “The combat operation has been completed,” the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade reported.

The danger to Ukrainian troops will only increase as the Russian counterattack intensifies. If there is any reason for optimism among the outnumbered Ukrainians, it is that Russian forces in and around Kursk are facing a relentless campaign of precision depth attacks by Ukrainian Air Force bombers and Ukrainian Army missile batteries, each carrying British-made cruise missiles Fire Storm Shadow-type ballistic missiles of the Army Tactical Missile System made in the United States.

On Monday, the Ukrainians attacked a sprawling Russian weapons depot west of Kursk with eight ATACMs. On Wednesday they hit a Russian command post in Kursk with 10 Storm Shadows. The heavy attacks could damage the supply lines to the regiments, brigades and divisions in Kursk – and disrupt their command and control.

But even if under-resourced and poorly led, Russian forces in Kursk are still much larger than Ukrainian forces. Mass will play a big role in the coming mechanized clash.