3 keys, Iowa football vs. Nebraska score prediction in 2024

Iowa’s offensive line vs. Nebraska’s defensive line are among the matchups to watch in the Heroes Trophy game

IOWA CITY – The Heroes Trophy has been in the atrium of Iowa’s Hansen Football Performance Center for eight of the last nine years.

But the Iowa-Nebraska rivalry was much closer than those results suggest. The last six games between Iowa and Nebraska have been decided by seven points or fewer. That includes three-point wins at Iowa in 2018, 2019 and 2023.

Nebraska also appears to be in better shape in Matt Rhule’s second year as head coach than the Hawkeyes did in previous years on Black Friday. The Huskers are bowl eligible for the first time since 2016.

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to retain the Heroes Trophy on Evashevski Drive:

Iowa’s offensive line vs. Nebraska’s defensive line

The better Kaleb Johnson does, the better Iowa often does overall.

When Iowa’s star running back rushes for at least 100 yards, the Hawkeyes are 7-1. If he doesn’t reach that mark, the Hawkeyes will be 0-3.

The battle at the line of scrimmage in front of Johnson – Iowa’s offensive line versus Nebraska’s defensive line – could be a big factor in whether Johnson gets a UCLA-esque 49-yard performance or a Maryland-esque 164-yard performance.

Iowa’s offensive line (and run blocking in particular) has been a strength for this 2024 team. Even with Gennings Dunker still recovering from his injury, Iowa is expected to field five offensive linemen against the Huskers, each with at least 19 career starts.

But Nebraska’s defensive front is also impressive. The Huskers have allowed 3.61 yards per rushing attempt, which ranks 25th nationally. The only teams on Iowa’s schedule that have a better average are Ohio State and UCLA, and neither of those games went well for Iowa’s rushing attack (or for the Hawkeyes in general).

Who will win the sales battle?

In the past games between Iowa and Nebraska, turnovers were often the deciding factor.

A year ago in Lincoln, Cedar Rapids native Ethan Hurkett’s final-minute interception was crucial en route to the Hawkeyes’ 13-10 victory over Nebraska. Two years ago, Iowa’s four turnovers in a 24-17 loss to the Huskers at Kinnick Stadium were fatal.

Looking back, the team that won the turnover battle won the Heroes Trophy in four straight games. (The turnover battle was tied in 2019, when Iowa won 27-24 on a 48-yard field goal by Keith Duncan with one second left.)

Luckily for Iowa fans, the Hawkeyes rank eighth nationally (and lead the Big Ten) in average turnover margin. Nebraska, on the other hand, is ranked 57th nationally and 10th in the Big Ten.

Is Iowa claiming the special teams advantage (again)?

Great special teams play can often be crucial in a rivalry as fiercely competitive as this one.

In 2023, Iowa pulled away with a 13-10 victory after Marshall Meeder made a game-winning 38-yard field goal as time expired.

In 2021, Iowa’s third-quarter punt block — which was blocked by Henry Marchese and returned by Kyler Fisher for a touchdown — was the turning point as the Hawkeyes overcame a 21-9 deficit at the end of the third quarter to ultimately win, 28-21.

Iowa has certainly benefited from some big special teams plays this year, whether it was Kaden Wetjen’s 85-yard punt return for a touchdown against Northwestern or Drew Stevens’ record-setting five field goals against Maryland. However, Iowa has also missed out on some big special teams plays this season, such as Troy and Northwestern’s punt returns for touchdowns.

If the Hawkeyes can match the special teams advantage they’ve secured in past Heroes Trophy matchups (and avoid the inconsistencies early in the season), it could go a long way in the finale of this year’s regular season.

forecast

Iowa appears to be the superior team on paper (and there’s a reason sportsbooks have Iowa as a 5.5-point favorite), but this could be a tricky matchup for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa 21, Nebraska 20

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